Fiji and Papua New Guinea will face off at the Grand Hamad Stadium in Qatar on Thursday in the final OFC group-stage qualifier for the 2022 World Cup.
The Bula Boys currently sit above the Kapuls on goal difference in Group B, and victory for either nation will see them advance to the semi-final stage of the qualification process.
Match preview
After 20 months away from international football, largely due to the coronavirus pandemic, Fiji began their 2022 World Cup qualification campaign with a 2-1 victory against New Caledonia last month, thanks to a brace from Sairusi Nalaubu.
Their second qualifier took place on Monday; however, they were unable to come out on top against New Zealand, who cruised to a 4-0 victory, with Flemming Serritslev's side suffering their heaviest defeat in nearly 15 years.
The Bula Boys now turn their attention to Thursday's fixture against Papua New Guinea, a nation they are unbeaten against in each of their last five meetings. Their last encounter was in July 2019 when they beat the Kapuls 4-2 on penalties to claim third place at the Pacific Games, following a 1-1 draw in normal time.
Fiji, who have never qualified for the World Cup, have finished third in each of the last two qualification group-stage campaigns for the 2014 and 2018 tournaments. Serritslev's men will be keen to avoid a third successive third-place finish with a victory on Thursday.
Papua New Guinea, however, only require a draw to advance to the next stage of qualification as they are currently positioned above Fiji on goal difference.
A slender 1-0 defeat against New Zealand last month was followed by a narrow victory by the same scoreline against New Caledonia on Monday, with Tommy Semmy's eighth-minute strike enough to secure three crucial points.
Marcos Gusmao, who took charge of the Kapuls in December 2021, is hoping his side can improve on their performance in 2018 Qualifying and reach their first-ever World Cup tournament this year.
Seven years ago, Papua New Guinea finished top of their OFC group before losing 4-2 on penalties against New Zealand in the second-round final, following a goalless draw in normal time.
Victory for Papua New Guinea on Thursday could see them face either the Solomon Islands or Tahiti in the semi-finals of the second round.
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Team News
Despite suffering defeat last time out, Serritslev is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his Fiji starting lineup.
Kishan Sami, Lekima Gonerau, Antonio Tuivuna and Remueru Tekiate could all retain their places in the back four, while captain Roy Krishna – who has scored 21 goals in 40 international appearances for the Bula Boys – is set to start in attack alongside Nalaubu.
As for Papua New Guinea, they are set to match Fiji by using a 4-4-2 formation, with captain Alwin Komolong starting alongside his brother Felix Komolong at centre-back.
Michael Foster, Emmanuel Simon, Jacob Sabula and Stahl Gubag could all keep their places in midfield, while Kolo Kepo will likely start in attack with Semmy.
Fiji possible starting lineup:
Alzaar Alam; Sami, Gonareu, Tuivuna, Tekiate; Raju, Waranaivalu, Hughes, Naidu; Nalaubu, Krishna
Papua New Guinea possible starting lineup:
Warisan; Joe, A. Komolong, F. Komolong, Airem; Foster, Simon, Sabua, Gubag; Semmy, Kepo
We say: Fiji 1-0 Papua New Guinea
Both nations will fancy their chances of success on Thursday, though Fiji will have the psychological edge against Papua New Guinea considering they are unbeaten in each of the last five meetings.
Although there is little to separate these two nations, we feel that Fiji will edge out their opponents to claim a slender victory in Qatar.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiji win with a probability of 48.48%. A win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiji win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Papua New Guinea win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
