After the jubilation of qualifying for their first ever European Championships, Finland will now seek to kick off qualification for the 2022 World Cup in the right way when they take on Bosnia-Herzegovina in their first match of Group D this Wednesday.
The hosts' 2020 saw them claim second spot in their Nations League group, while Bosnia were relegated from League A after a dismal set of results.
Match preview
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Progressing to the Euros for the first time is one thing, but the possibility of a first ever appearance at a World Cup finals is surely the ultimate goal for Finland, who ought to feel confident about their chances of finishing second in a group which includes the current holders France.
Markku Kanerva's side only managed to win two of their 10 qualification matches for Russia 2018, but they have come on leaps and bounds since then and are expecting to be battling Bosnia and Ukraine for second place and a spot in the playoffs, unless Kazakhstan can somehow put their name in the hat for a runners-up spot in Group D.
The Nordic nation enjoyed a wholly positive Nations League campaign last year and ultimately claimed second spot in League B Group 4 - four points behind Wales, who beat them 3-1 in their final match of 2020 - but Kanerva's men had managed to triumph four times on the trot in the competition before losing to Ryan Giggs's men in November.
As well as their satisfactory Nations League performance, Finland also secured one of the most famous results in their history as they overcame France 2-0 in a friendly last autumn, but it would take a miracle for Kanerva's men to repeat that feat in qualification for the World Cup, and they were also thrashed 5-1 by Poland in 2020 too.
However, Finland have managed to come up trumps in 11 of their last 14 home matches in all competitions, as well as managing to keep a clean sheet in all of those wins - a remarkable achievement indeed - so an out-of-sorts Bosnia cannot travel north expecting a routine three points against the vastly-improved Huuhkajat.
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Without Edin Dzeko firing on all cylinders, Bosnia were no match for the European powerhouses in the Nations League last year, as two draws and four defeats from six matches saw them finish rock bottom of League A Group 1 behind Poland, the Netherlands and Italy - the latter of whom beat them 2-0 in their most recent international match.
The Golden Lillies only managed to strike three times in the tournament and also failed to win any of their matches in 2020 - losing to Northern Ireland in the European Championships playoffs and being put to the sword by Iran in a friendly - so the prospect of only a second ever appearance at a World Cup finals since 2000 may not be anything more than a fantasy for some supporters.
However, Ivaylo Petev will do his utmost to try to secure a top-two finish in Group D - no mean feat with France expected to ease through - and while Bosnia did manage to hold Italy and Netherlands to draws last year, their most recent victory was all the way back in September 2019.
Even then, that 3-0 win over Liechtenstein was not enough to see them qualify for a spot at the European Championships after their playoff defeat to Northern Ireland, and their last trip to Finland also ended in dismay as they lost 2-0 to the Nordic nation during Euros qualification in June 2019.
However, Petev's side did manage to thrash Finland 4-1 only a few months later, so the visitors certainly know how to get the better of their midweek opponents, but a dreadful set of results in 2020 has not exactly aroused much confidence within their ranks before the road to Qatar gets underway.
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Team News
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Finland will be without their first-choice goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky this month after the Bayer Leverkusen stalwart suffered an Achilles injury, so Jesse Joronen should earn a start in goal, and Hradecky's fellow Bundesliga star Fredrik Jensen is also missing with a thigh problem.
Rangers midfielder Glen Kamara played the full 90 minutes in the Old Firm just days after being the victim of alleged racism against Slavia Prague, and he has been included in the squad for March's fixtures and is also in contention to start here.
Star striker Teemu Pukki currently sits on 27 goals for the national team - third in the all-time list behind Mikael Forssell (29) and Jari Litmanen (32) - so the Norwich City man will certainly have his sights set on that record this year.
Bosnia will also be without one of their more experienced veterans in Edin Visca, who is not quite at 100% after shaking off an injury and will not be risked for this month's fixtures.
Barcelona's Miralem Pjanic sits on 98 caps on for the national team and should certainly hit that elusive century in the next fortnight despite his struggles in Catalonia, while Dzeko will also be eyeing a landmark 60th goal for his country this week.
Uncapped Freiburg forward Ermedin Demirovic has earned a spot in the squad for this game, and with Visca out of contention, he could receive his first cap for the national team on the right-hand side of the attack.
Finland possible starting lineup:
Joronen; Granlund, Toivio, Arajuuri, Raitala; Lod, Kamara, Sparv, Soiri; Pukki, Pohjanpalo
Bosnia possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Todorovic, Sanicanin, Mihojevic, Kolasinac; Cimirot, Pjanic, Krunic; Demirovic, Dzeko, Duljevic
We say: Finland 2-1 Bosnia
Even though Bosnia's 2020 results make for rather bleak reading, the calibre of the opponents in their Nations League group must be taken into account. However, Finland are only heading in one direction, and they will hardly get a better opportunity to qualify for the biggest stage of them all, so we are backing the Nordic side to begin their bid for a World Cup finals appearance in ideal fashion with a narrow win in the capital.
Top tip
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 59.65%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 18.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
