Two clubs with little to play for in Serie A will lock horns on Wednesday as Fiorentina welcome fellow mid-table side Bologna to the Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Only three points separate the teams in the table heading into the penultimate round of fixtures, with Fiorentina in 12th while Bologna lie 10th after 36 matches.
Match preview
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Fiorentina's six-game unbeaten run in the Italian top flight ended in disappointing and controversial fashion at the hands of Roma on Sunday evening.
Two penalties from Jordan Veretout either side of a Nikola Milenkovic header condemned Fiorentina to their 13th defeat of the season and scuppered their chances of a top-half finish in the process.
La Viola had enjoyed three victories and three draws from their last six outings prior to the weekend loss to Roma, and a three-point gap currently separates Fiorentina from the top half of the table with just two games remaining.
It seemed unfathomable for a club of Fiorentina's stature to suffer relegation from Serie A, and while La Viola have comfortably secured their safety in the top flight, Giuseppe Iachini knows that there is work to be done if Fiorentina are to mount a charge for a top-six finish next term.
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In contrast, Bologna managed to end a five-game winless streak at the weekend as they came out on the right end of the scoreline in a five-goal thriller with Lecce.
Sinisa Mihajlovic's men left it late to claim all three points, however, with Musa Barrow's winner three minutes into added time ensuring that Bologna took the spoils in a 3-2 victory against the relegation candidates.
As is the case with Fiorentina, Bologna are firmly in mid-table obscurity and there is little riding on these final two games for Mihajlovic, and I Rossoblu have a relatively friendly final-day fixture with Torino to look forward to next weekend.
Bologna will no doubt want to try and better last season's 10th-placed finish, though, and Mihajlovic's men only lie behind ninth-placed Hellas Verona on goal difference before the penultimate round of matches.
The points have been shared in the last three meetings between Fiorentina and Bologna, although Fiorentina have not tasted defeat against I Rossoblu since the 2012-13 campaign.
Fiorentina Serie A form: DDWWDL
Bologna Serie A form: LDDLLW
Team News
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Fiorentina have no fresh injury or suspension concerns heading into the midweek clash with Bologna.
Goalkeeper Bartlomiej Dragowski is nursing a back problem and may be forced to watch from the sidelines again, while Marco Benassi is expected to miss the remainder of the campaign.
Gaetano Castrovilli returns from a suspension and is in line to start in the middle of the park, while Patrick Cutrone and Dalbert will also be hopeful of earning recalls to the first XI.
As for Bologna, Rodrigo Palacio picked up his fifth booking of the season in the victory over Lecce and will sit this one out.
The Argentine's absence could see Barrow shifted to a central role, allowing Nicola Sansone to come back in on the left-hand side.
Takehiro Tomiyasu, Mattia Bani and Jerdy Schouten all remain on the treatment table for I Rossoblu.
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Milenkovic, Pezzella, Caceres; Chiesa, Pulgar, Castrovilli, Ghezzal, Dalbert; Ribery, Cutrone
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Mbaye, Danilo, Denswil, Krejci; Medel, Svanberg; Orsolini, Soriano, Sansone; Barrow
We say: Fiorentina 2-1 Bologna
Both Fiorentina and Bologna will already be looking ahead to next season and have nothing to fear heading into the final stretch. That being said, Fiorentina boast a strong recent record against Bologna and were unfortunate to come away from their meeting with Roma empty-handed, so we are going for a narrow home victory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 48.09%. A win for Bologna had a probability of 27.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.45%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Bologna win was 0-1 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
