Separated by just two points and one place in the Serie A table, Fiorentina and Hellas Verona clash at Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday.
Two of Calcio's most entertaining sides convene in Florence with the hosts hoping to bounce back from successive defeats, while their visitors aim to surpass them in the standings by extending some fine recent form.
Match preview
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As is often the case with teams committed to attacking football, they can be stung late on as legs begin to tire - and that has been the case twice in the past week for Fiorentina.
After the Viola were beaten with virtually the final kick of the game at Sassuolo last weekend - when Gregoire Defrel struck in stoppage time at the Mapei Stadium - they were dealt another sickening blow against their bitterest foes in the Coppa Italia semi-finals on Wednesday.
On that occasion, Vincenzo Italiano saw his side go unrewarded for having the majority of possession and 22 shots at goal versus Juventus, in the clubs' first leg encounter, as an agonising own-goal by Lorenzo Venuti gifted their opponents a both a slim lead and a valuable away goal to take back to Turin.
That setback aside, Fiorentina have generally excelled when on home turf this season; gaining 25 of 42 Serie A points so far at their Tuscan headquarters - only Inter have a posted a higher points per game ratio in home matches.
The key to such success has been their potency in the final third, and though Dusan Vlahovic took the well-trodden route to join Juve during the transfer window, one of his replacements, Arthur Cabral, became the Viola's 17th different scorer in Serie A this season when equalising against Sassuolo - no other side has had more.
While they are also unbeaten in their last four league meetings with Sunday's opponents, thanks to a win and three draws, former Verona midfielder Italiano has yet to win a top-flight match as a coach against his former club.
Remaining winless against them at the Franchi since December 2013, Verona have won two and drawn three of the teams' last five fixtures in Florence, so precedent is not in Fiorentina's favour.
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In addition to their strong record at Sunday's venue, Verona travel to Tuscany having won five of their eight league matches in 2022; hauling them to within a couple of points of their hosts and making them dark horses for European qualification.
Following his brace in December's incredible comeback win in the reverse fixture, top scorer Giovanni Simeone fired the Scaligeri to success last weekend - grabbing a hat-trick against Venezia, as his side completed the double over their Veneto rivals.
As a result, Verona have earned 40 points so far; equalling their highest total at this stage of a Serie A season since the turn of the century. Indeed, with just a point against Fiorentina, they would establish their best tally after 28 games since 1995.
Hellas have both scored the most goals in the division (18 in eight games) following the winter break and only Napoli have picked up more points during that time - underlining the superb progress made under Igor Tudor, who has transformed the club's fortunes since his appointment earlier this season.
Set to face Inter, Napoli and Atalanta during their following five fixtures, the Gialloblu will be keen to take three points home on Sunday afternoon, but just three victories from 13 attempts on the road suggests they may have to reach even greater heights in order to do so.
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Team News
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Fiorentina will be forced into some changes from the lineup which held Juventus goalless for 90 minutes in midweek, as a knee sprain for Alvaro Odriozola should see unfortunate own-goal scorer Lorenzo Venuti take the right-back's place against Verona, and Giacomo Bonaventura is absent due to suspension.
Sent off against Sassuolo at the weekend, the experienced midfielder will most likely be replaced by either Youssef Maleh or Alfred Duncan in the hosts' central trio, while defensive mainstay Nikola Milenkovic returns to Serie A action after being banned last weekend.
Up front, Krzysztof Piatek will again go head-to-head with Arthur Cabral to start as the focal point of an attacking triumvirate, at the head of Vincenzo Italiano's 4-3-3 formation.
Verona, meanwhile, will have midfielder Miguel Veloso available again, with both Nicolo Casale and Koray Gunter also expected to return in defence.
After sustaining an injury against Venezia, centre-back Panagiotis Retsos joins Pawel Dawidowicz and Ivor Pandur on the sidelines, and influential attacking midfielder Antonin Barak may not be fit in time.
Giovanni Simeone starts up front, having previously netted 20 times in 74 Serie A appearances for Fiorentina. Simeone has also scored 15 league goals this term: only one man in Verona's history has managed more in a top-flight campaign: World Cup-winner Luca Toni (20 in 2013-14 and 22 in 2014-15).
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Terracciano; Venuti, Milenkovic, Igor, Biraghi; Maleh, Torreira, Castrovilli; Ikone, Piatek, Sottil
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Casale, Gunter, Ceccherini; Faraoni, Tameze, Ilic, Lazovic; Bessa, Caprari; Simeone
We say: Fiorentina 2-2 Hellas Verona
After a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture, the spoils are set to be shared once again on Sunday, as both sides have similar strengths and frailties - making for an intriguing match-up.
Fiorentina may have been less fluent in and around the penalty box since losing Vlahovic, but now feature enough talented forwards in their ranks to counteract attack-minded opposition.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 51.04%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 25.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
