Flamengo host LDU Quito in the fifth round of group-stage matches in the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday evening in Rio de Janeiro.
With two games left, the Brazilian side can secure top spot with a win, while the away team are two points behind second-placed Velez Sarsfield and could need a win this week to take it to the final game.
Match preview
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Flamengo had started the tournament in impressive form, winning their first three games, but will be disappointed to have not wrapped up top spot last time out, as they were held to a 2-2 draw against bottom of the group.
Union La Calera knew they needed to win and came out of the blocks flying with two early goals before the tournament's top-scorer Gabriel Barbosa pulled one back for Rubro-Negro before half time.
Defender Willian Arao, who scored an own goal in the first half, redeemed himself as he levelled the tie for Rogerio Ceni's side, increasing their total to 12 goals in the first four matches of the group stages.
Flamengo have been in great form in all competitions - currently on a run of nine games unbeaten - which has led them to the final of the Brazilian regional tournament Carioca 1, against bitter rivals Fluminense.
The first leg of the final ended 1-1 on Saturday with Barbosa converting from the penalty spot, meaning it is all down to the second leg, when Flamengo will have the home advantage this coming Saturday.
LDU Quito's league form has not been as good this season, currently sitting in sixth place, and it is looking increasingly unlikely that they will win their 12th Liga Pro Ecuador Serie A title.
Their drop in league position is down to their last two games, when they have suffered two disappointing 3-1 defeats including at home to league strugglers Aucas on Sunday.
Pablo Repetto will need to pick the team up going into Wednesday's game, as he looks to progress through the group stage of the Copa Libertadores for the third consecutive campaign after finishing second in their group in 2019 and 2020.
LDU have made the task of finishing second much harder after a 3-1 defeat against Velez Sarsfield, which puts the Argentine side - who face bottom of the group this round - a couple of points clear.
It is going to be a very tough ask to beat Flamengo away from home especially as the Brazilians have not lost in the competition in the last nine games, but LDU will want to seek revenge after conceding a last-minute goal in their previous meeting, which ended 3-2.
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Team News
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Barbosa scored the winning penalty when these sides met two weeks ago and will be looking to increase his lead as the current top-scorer, with a tally of six goals in the tournament as he leads the home side's attack.
Flamengo will remain without defensive midfielder Thiago Maia due to a cruciate ligament rupture which has ruled the Brazilian out for a long period.
Despite the second leg of the final in a few days' time, the home side are expected to maintain a strong starting lineup as they look to confirm top spot.
The away side will be without Lucas Piovi due to suspension after the midfielder was sent off against Velez Sarsfield, having only come on as a substitute.
Luis Ayala has been replacing left-back Christian Cruz from the substitute bench in recent weeks and will look for his second successive start on Wednesday after being favoured on the weekend.
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Luis, Viana, Arao, Isla; De Arrascaeta, Diego, Gomes, Ribeiro; Henrique, Gabriel
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Perlaza, Guerra, Corozo, Ayala; Villarruel, Alcivar; Zunino, Arce, Munoz; Martinez Borja
We say: Flamengo 3-1 LDU Quito
This fixture between the two sides produced five goals two weeks ago and is likely again to be a high-scoring affair with both teams being attack-minded.
Flamengo have been in great form of late and look to be a team to beat in this tournament while LDU have suffered four defeats in a row in all competitions.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 59.94%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for LDU Quito had a probability of 17.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.44%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a LDU Quito win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
