Newport County hold the advantage going into the second leg of their League Two playoff semi-final against Forest Green Rovers.
The Exiles won 2-0 in the first leg at Rodney Parade but have been reminded by manager Mike Flynn that their place at Wembley is not confirmed yet.
Match preview
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A sublime 25-yard strike from Matt Dolan in the first half and a calm one-on-one finish from Lewis Collins after the break put Newport in the driving seat on Tuesday night.
The Welsh side rose to the occasion with 900 home fans in attendance and missed a number of chances to kill the tie off, with goalscorer Collins admitting that "we should be out of sight".
It was County's first win over Forest Green this season, following a 1-1 draw in December and a 2-0 victory for Rovers in February, and it came at the perfect time as they aim to make it into the third tier for the first time since 1987; the closest they have come since then is playoff final defeat to Tranmere Rovers two years ago.
Tuesday's result was also their fifth clean sheet in six games, meaning Forest Green have a job on their hands to get back into the tie; particularly as Newport have not conceded more than one goal in a match since April 2.
However, Flynn's side have failed to win any of their last five away games, not picking up a victory on the road since March 13 against Morecambe.
That will give Forest Green interim boss Jimmy Ball hope that his side can emulate Northampton Town in last year's League Two playoffs, who beat Cheltenham Town in the semi-finals after trailing 2-0 in the first leg.
Ball, who replaced Mark Cooper in the dugout in April, has emphasised that the contest "is far from over" as Rovers seek promotion to League One for the first time in their history.
This is only the club's fourth ever season in the Football League, with their previous playoff tilt ending in semi-final defeat to Tranmere in 2019.
Tuesday's game was only the second time that the Gloucestershire outfit have lost in seven games since Under-18s boss Ball took the top job, but they have won only two of their last six home matches.
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Team News
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Forest Green top scorer and former Newport striker Jamille Matt, who scored against the Welsh side in both games in the regular season, was thought to be out for the season with a serious hand injury but made a surprise appearance as a substitute on Tuesday night.
As Rovers search for a comeback, the 31-year-old could now start upfront next to Aaron Collins, who went into the first leg with three goals and one assist in two games.
In midfield, Ebou Adams is available for selection again after serving a two-match suspension.
First leg goalscorer Lewis Collins, brother of Aaron, picked up a knock on Tuesday night and had to be substituted off, so Mike Flynn will be hoping he can recover in time to feature.
Collins's strike partner Padraig Amond, who has previously scored in high-profile cup games against Tottenham Hotspur, Leicester City and Manchester City, has found the net just once in his last 29 appearances.
Newport are also hopeful that captain Joss Labadie will be fit to play a part after a knee injury ruled him out of the first leg.
Forest Green Rovers possible starting lineup:
McGee; Bernard, Godwin-Malife, Stokes, Cargill; Richardson, Moore-Taylor, Adams, Bailey; Collins, Matt
Newport County possible starting lineup:
King; Shephard, Bennett, Demetriou; Lewis, Dolan, Sheehan, Labadie, Haynes; Amond, Collins
We say: Forest Green Rovers 2-2 Newport County
Forest Green have to start on the front foot, but Flynn has said that Newport will not simply sit back and invite pressure; that could lead to an entertaining encounter typical of the chaos of the playoffs. It may swing either way, but we think the game will end level, sending Newport to Wembley.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 35.97%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.69% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.65%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%).
