An important game takes place at the bottom of the Eredivisie table on Saturday, as Fortuna Sittard welcome Groningen to the Offermans Joosten Stadion.
The hosts now sit in the automatic drop zone, having lost their last three games, while a win last time out lifted the visitors to 14th, five points better off than their opponents.
Match preview
After a winning start against FC Twente, Fortuna Sittard have had to battle through a difficult run of form, failing to win any of the next six games to drop into the relegation zone.
While a victory over newly-promoted Cambuur improved their standing, Sjors Ultee's men have since lost three consecutive games after a draw with Willem II.
After throwing a 3-1 lead away against Go Ahead Eagles, eventually losing 4-3, Fortunezen were comfortably beaten 4-1 by PSV Eindhoven, with an Andre Ramalho own goal the only blemish on a dominant performance from the visitors.
Their losing run was stretched to three games last time out, as fellow strugglers Heracles picked up a 3-1 victory thanks to an Ismail Azzaoui brace and a goal from Kaj Sierhuis.
That left Ultee's side on just nine points from 12 games in 17th spot, and, now sitting one point behind the relegation playoff place and two points adrift of safety, they will be keen to quickly correct their form and improve their standing at the bottom end of the division.
Groningen arrive in an improved run of form, having hugely boosted their position in recent games.
Similarly to their hosts, the Trots van het Noorden made a winning start to the Eredivisie campaign, before going on an eight-game winless run to sink into the bottom five of the table.
They arrested that slump with an impressive 2-1 home win over AZ Alkmaar and managed to bounce back from a defeat to NEC and a draw with RKC Waalwijk by beating Go Ahead Eagles last time out.
Jorgen Strand Larsen put Danny Buijs's side ahead early in the second half, and they stood strong to see out an away victory, rising to 14th as a result.
After a ninth-placed finish last term, the Trots van het Noorden will feel they do not belong at this end of the table and will be keen to add another three-point haul to continue their improvement on Saturday.
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Team News
Fortuna Sittard will remain without winger Lisandro Semedo, who continues a spell on the sidelines through injury.
Zian Flemming should continue to lead the line, while Tijjani Noslin and Mats Seuntjens will hope to keep their places on the wings amidst competition from the likes of Bassala Sambou.
Ultee will likely stick with the centre-back pairing of Roel Janssen and Martin Angha, after the former started over Nigel Longwijk last time out.
Groningen will be missing midfielder Tomas Suslov, who will serve a one-game suspension after picking up his fifth yellow card of the season last time out.
Meanwhile, Damil Dankerlui, Romano Postema and Radinio Balker will likely all continue spells in the treatment room.
Jorgen Strand Larsen will keep his place in attack after netting the winning goal last time out, and he should again be joined by Michael de Leeuw in a front two.
Fortuna Sittard possible starting lineup:
Osch; Tirpan, Angha, Janssen, Cox; Tekie, Rienstra; Noslin, Ferati, Seuntjens; Flemming
Groningen possible starting lineup:
Leeuwenburgh; Kasanwirjo, Dammers, Sverko, Hintum; Duarte; Hankouri, Irandust, Joosten; De Leeuw, Larsen
We say: Fortuna Sittard 0-1 Groningen
Given the hosts' struggles and Groningen's improvements recently, we predict a narrow away win on Saturday.
Fortuna should certainly not roll over in a game that they will view as a good opportunity to pick up points, but Ultee's men will be wounded by consecutive heavy defeats and may not have enough to avoid another loss.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 40.94%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (6.88%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Groningen would win this match.
