Host nation Cameroon get the ball rolling in the quarter-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations when they lock horns with Gambia at the Douala Stadium on Saturday.
Gambia have enjoyed a sensational debut at the tournament, claiming three wins and keeping three clean sheets from their four games and will look to cause another major upset.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite being the lowest-ranked side in the Africa Cup of Nations, Gambia find themselves in contention for a place in the semi-finals after a superb run so far.
The Scorpions, who are making their first appearance at the tournament, kicked off their campaign with a 1-0 victory over Mauritania on January 12, before holding out for an impressive 1-1 draw with Mali four days later.
Tom Saintfiet's men wrapped up the group stages in style as they stunned Tunisia to a 1-0 victory at the Limbe Omnisport Stadium last Thursday courtesy of a 93rd-minute winner from Ablie Jallow.
Gambia carried on their habit of causing upsets into the knockout stages of the tournament as they put on a sensational show of class to grind out a 1-0 victory over Guinea in Kouekong last time out.
In what was their third 1-0 victory at the competition, Bologna forward Musa Barrow came up trumps for the Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam when he struck the winner in the 71st minute to send Guinea crashing out of the tournament.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, just three games away from conquering the continent, Cameroon will feel delighted by their performance on home soil and confident in their chances of going all the way.
The Indomitable Lions enjoyed an unbeaten run in the group stages, claiming successive wins over Burkina Faso and Ethiopia in their opening two games, before being held to a 1-1 draw by Cape Verde in their final group game.
With seven points from three games, Cameroon secured smooth passage into the knockout stages after finishing at the summit of Group A, three points above Burkina Faso and Cape Verde, who were level on four points.
Toni Conceicao's side continued their charge for their sixth Africa Cup of Nations title last time out when they claimed a 2-1 victory over a Coronavirus-hit Comoros side when they squared off at the Paul Biya Stadium.
After Karl Toko Ekambi opened the scoring just before the half-hour mark, Vincent Aboubakar continued his sensational goalscoring form as he doubled the advance in the 70th minute before Youssouf M'Changama scored an absolute beauty from a free kick to pull one back for the newcomers.
Cameroon head into Saturday's game unbeaten in each of their last eight games across all competitions, picking up an impressive seven wins and one draw since a 2-1 loss at the hands of Ivory Coast back in September's World Cup qualification clash.
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Gambia will take to the pitch without the services of Yusupha Njie, who turns out for Boavista in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, after the 28-year-old forward received his marching orders in the game against Guinea last time out.
On the injury front, Ablie Jallow is a major doubt for the Scorpions after the Metz forward hobbled off the pitch in the aforementioned game shortly after the hour mark through injury, meaning Ebrima Colley could push for a return to the XI.
Noah Sonko Sundberg missed the game against Guinea last Thursday after picking up a slight injury versus Tunisia and the 25-year-old defender's participation is also in doubt.
Barrow, who scored the winner against the Syli Nationale, has been involved in all of Gambia's four goals at the tournament, and the Bologna man will certainly be one to keep an eye out for.
Meanwhile, Aboubakar has been on song for Senegal so far, netting six goals in four outings, and we expect the 30-year-old forward to spearhead the Senegal attack once again.
The former Porto man, who currently leads the race for the Golden Boot, broke Samuel Eto'o record to become the first Cameroonian to score in four straight AFCON matches with his strike against Comoros last time out.
With that said, we expect to see a similar side from that game, with Ekambi, Andre Zambo Anguissa, Martin Hongla and Nicolas Moumie Ngamaleu all starting at the centre of the park.
Gambia possible starting lineup:
Jobe; Modou, Colley, Sanneh, Tore; Marreh, Adams, Darboe; Colley, Barrow, Ceesay
Cameroon possible starting lineup:
Onana; Fai, Moukoudi, Ngadeu, Tolo; Hongla, Anguissa, Ngamaleu, Ekambi; Aboubakar, Choupo-Moting
We say: Gambia 0-2 Cameroon
Cameroon are presented with yet another easy fixture as they go up against a debuting nation for the second game running. However, Gambia have proven to be no pushover at the tournament and will look to stun the Indomitable Lions on home soil. However, Cameroon boast the quality and experience needed at this stage of the tournament and we are tipping them to come away with the win in normal time.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cameroon win with a probability of 42.96%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 30.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cameroon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.73%) and 0-2 (7.93%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (9.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Cameroon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Cameroon.