The bottom two teams in Serie A will battle it out for a place in the third round of the Coppa Italia on Tuesday as Genoa host Salernitana from Luigi Ferraris Stadium.
Il Grifone erased a 2-0 deficit in the opening round of this competition, scoring late in the second half to eliminate Perugia 3-2, while the team from Salerno blanked Reggina 2-0.
Match preview
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Over the past 14 seasons, Genoa have been competing in the top flight of Italian football, escaping relegation time after time, and after 17 games in 2021-22, they may need to do it again to survive in Serie A, with only 10 points so far, currently second last in the standings.
Seeing them near the bottom of the table is a familiar feeling for this club, who have been a lot more successful in this competition of late than in the league, making it to the round of 16 in back-to-back campaigns, falling on penalties to Torino in 2019-20 and then a season ago losing 3-2 in extra time to the eventual champions, Juventus.
I Rossoblu have made sweeping changes off the field to try and get this team back on track, with the US-based private investment firm 777 Partners purchasing the club in September and bringing in an icon in this league from years ago in former AC Milan striker Andriy Shevchenko as their new manager.
This will be the Ukrainian's first match on the sidelines in this competition, and so far in the league, the 2004 Ballon d'Or winner has not made much of an impact on this group, losing all five of his games in charge, including a 3-1 defeat to Sampdoria on Friday.
Shevchenko comes here with new ideas and a fresh look, but in the early stages of his tenure in Liguria, it seems as though his players are still struggling to shake their old habits, as they continue to start matches slowly, going behind within the opening 10 minutes in each of their previous three encounters, which is what happened to them in their last Coppa Italia game when they were behind by two goals after 10 minutes of play.
Under their new boss, Genoa have been playing with three at the back while overloading the midfield with five players, a formation that has been difficult for them to master as their two strikers have failed to close down the angles of opposing defenders, while their chemistry and ability to win those 50/50 balls in the middle of the field has been lacking.
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The return to the top flight for I Granata has been filled with plenty of bumps and rarely a smooth ride, sitting bottom of the table with only eight points.
Even though they rarely touched the ball in their first-round fixture versus Serie B side Reggina, with only 34% possession, they were sharp out wide and in transition, enabling them to advance to this point of the competition.
They have not had much to be optimistic about in their first season back in Serie A, but they have won their share of matches in this tournament, qualifying for the third round over each of their previous six campaigns.
Stefano Colantuono initially saw his new team play well in his first few matches in charge, defeating Venezia 2-1, and then narrowly losing 1-0 to Napoli, but since November, things have only gone downhill for him and his club, losers of five of their last six top-flight fixtures, failing to score in each of those defeats.
Like their opponents on Tuesday, they usually find themselves having to chase a result going into half time, only scoring the opening goal in a match three times domestically, although one of those came in a 1-0 win over Genoa, their first of only two victories in Serie A this year.
With the fewest amount of goals scored in the league so far (11) along with the most conceded (37), it is easy to see why they are dead last at the moment, which has to be disappointing for a club who signed over 20 players this summer.
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Team News
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Genoa will be without Francesco Cassata, who underwent knee surgery in August, Mohamed Fares has a muscle injury, Nikola Maksimovic has a groin strain, Felipe Caicedo is suffering from muscular problems and Nicolo Rovella continues to recover from a muscle issue.
Mattia Destro scored the only goal on Friday as he leads the team with seven, putting him into a tie for sixth in league play along with Mario Pasalic and Domenico Berardi.
Goals from Domenico Criscito, plus an own goal from Perugia keeper Leandro Chichizola and a late strike from Yayah Kallon helped propel the oldest football team in Italy to a dramatic come from behind victory in their first round match.
Federico Bonazzoli is the leading goalscorer at this competition early on, with the Salernitana striker notching a brace in their first-round victory, while Vid Belec stopped all six shots that were fired his way to collect a clean sheet.
Veteran French midfielder Franck Ribery has been their top creative player, as the 2006 World Cup runner-up has two assists domestically but has not been involved in any of their tallies in this competition, as Wajdi Kechrida and Matteo Ruggeri were the providers for both goals scored by Bonazzoli versus Reggina.
This team have incurred several injuries this season as Ruggeri is out with a muscle problem, Mamadou Coulibaly, Antonio Russo and Cedric Gondo have unknown injuries, Stefan Strandberg is nursing an adductor problem, Nadir Zortea has a muscular issue and Milan Duric is in quarantine due to health and safety protocols.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Marchetti; Vasquez, Bani, Criscito; Ghiglione, Sturaro, Badelj, Destro, Cambiaso; Pandev, Ekuban
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Belec; Ranieri, Bogdan, Gyomber, Jaroszynski; L. Coulibaly, Di Tacchio, Kastanos, Kechrida; Ribery; Simy
We say: Genoa 1-1 Salernitana (Salernitana wins on penalties)
Neither team have been particularly sharp in Serie A, however, I Granata have won more games than Genoa domestically this season (2-1), and they will not be under the same kind of pressure as Genoa in this encounter, so we expect that the longer this game remains tied, the more it favours the visitors, who have veteran players like Ribery who should provide a calming influence in what could be a tense and tight affair.
Genoa have yet to win at home in the league this season, and this group of players are still struggling to find their bearings under a new boss with a new system.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salernitana win with a probability of 37.8%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salernitana win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.34%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-0 (9.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
