Rolando Maran's success-starved Genoa welcome unbeaten AC Milan in trepidation on Wednesday, as the league leaders seek to build upon a late fightback which kept their defeat-free Serie A record intact on Sunday.
After that 2-2 draw with Parma at San Siro, which kept the Rossoneri top of the table ahead of a fierce chasing pack, they now meet a toiling team that languishes in the relegation zone on just six points so far.
Match preview
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Having coped admirably with the absence of their totemic top-scorer Zlatan Ibrahimovic since his injury last month, the towering Swede's absence became tangible at home to Parma on Sunday, when stop-gap striker Ante Rebic struggled to lead Milan's fightback from a shock two-goal deficit.
Instead, athletic full-back Theo Hernandez bagged a brilliant brace to save their faces - and a valuable point, which keeps them three clear of city rivals Inter at the summit of the standings.
They could hardly ask for a friendlier fixture with which to recover from their weekend near-miss, as Genoa have lost their last five league matches - the Grifone's longest losing run at home in the competition.
Meanwhile, Milan have won their last seven Serie A away games. Only once have they won more in a row in their illustrious top-flight history - with nine during the halcyon days of 1992-93.
Not only that, but owing to a relentless attacking approach, the Diavolo are the only side in Serie A history to have scored two or more goals in each of their first 11 games.
A sign of the times perhaps, given the sheer volume of goals which have flowed more generally post-lockdown, but nevertheless a seriously impressive feat for Stefano Pioli's ascendant side.
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Though it was in fact Genoa that inflicted Milan's last defeat in the competition - way back in March - there are few observers of the Grifone's current plight who would back them to repeat the feat again this week.
The home side were beaten - ultimately comprehensively - by resurgent Juventus over the weekend, with a Stefano Sturaro equaliser against the run of play being overhauled by a pair of Cristiano Ronaldo penalties in the second half.
After yet another defeat at Marassi, Rolando Maran's strugglers are now just a point above bottom club Crotone and have failed to record a league win since a 4-1 win against the Calabrian side on the opening day.
Forwards Eldor Shomurodov, Goran Pandev and Mattia Destro have all underperformed or been underemployed this term by a coach who has persisted with a cautious approach.
If the under-fire Maran is still in a job after Wednesday's encounter, he can then prepare his toiling troops for eminently more winnable games against Benevento and Spezia to close out the calendar year. Anything taken from their meeting with Milan - certainly Serie A's most improved side of 2020 - will be a major bonus.
Genoa Serie A form: LLLLDL
Genoa form (all competitions): LLWLDL
AC Milan Serie A form: WDWWWD
AC Milan form (all competitions): DWWWWD
Team News
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Milan's Zlatan Ibrahimovic returned to group training this week but is unlikely to be involved as soon as Wednesday, though his coach Stefano Pioli could certainly do with giving his improvised deputy Ante Rebic a rest.
Belgium winger Alexis Saelemaekers also participated and is possibly in line for a return - at least to the bench.
Defender Matteo Gabbia and midfield lynchpin Ismael Bennacer will be assessed ahead of the game, as Bennacer suffered a thigh strain versus Parma and Gabbia has aggravated ligaments. Danish defender Simon Kjaer is still short of full fitness and will not return to the squad yet.
Genoa's top scorer Marko Pjaca, with three goals, started against parent club Juventus but did not impress, so Eldor Shomurodov and veteran Goran Pandev will contend for his place in support of Gianluca Scammaca, who has gone off the boil of late.
Rolando Maran will again have to do without Davide Zappacosta, Cristian Zapata, Francesco Cassata and captain Domenico Criscito, as he could potentially send out a conservative 4-4-2 formation to face down the league leaders' fearless front line.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Perin; Goldaniga, Bani, Masiello, Pellegrini; Lerager, Radovanovic, Rovella, Sturaro; Scamacca, Shomurodov
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Dalot, Duarte, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Tonali, Kessie; Castillejo, Calhanoglu, Hauge; Rebic
We say: Genoa 0-2 AC Milan
If Genoa are to mount an end-of-year comeback, it is unlikely to start here. Upcoming fixtures against sides just above them are a more realistic aim, rather than this fixture in which coach Rolando Maran is just likely to batten down the hatches.
Even a changed Milan XI can recover from their weekend stumble to put the Grifone to the sword at Marassi, though it may not be a totally straightforward task in the absence of important injury-affected players.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 71.53%. A draw had a probability of 17.3% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 11.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.21%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.18%), while for a Genoa win it was 1-0 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
