The bottom two teams in Group G will round off their World Cup 2022 qualification campaigns with a contest on Tuesday evening, as Gibraltar welcome Latvia to the Victoria Stadium.
Gibraltar will enter the contest off the back of a 6-0 defeat to Turkey on Saturday, while Latvia picked up a welcome point away to Norway in their last fixture on the same night.
Match preview
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Gibraltar were always going to find it difficult to compete in Group G, and it has been a tough qualification campaign for the national team, who have lost all nine of their matches to sit bottom of the section, scoring just three times and conceding 40 in the process.
The home side will enter this match off the back of a 6-0 loss in Turkey on Saturday, while they were also beaten 6-0 by the Netherlands last month, so confidence will not exactly be flowing in the squad.
Gibraltar also suffered a 3-1 loss to Latvia in the reverse match back in September, and Los Llanis have not managed to triumph in any competition since beating Liechtenstein 1-0 in the UEFA Nations League last October.
Julio Cesar Ribas's side unsurprisingly failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, losing all 10 of their qualification fixtures, and it would certainly be a huge step in the right direction if they managed to put a victory on the board against Latvia on Tuesday.
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Latvia, meanwhile, will enter the contest off the back of a goalless draw in Norway on Saturday, which moved them onto six points in the section, boasting one win, three draws and five defeats from nine matches.
Dainis Kazakevics's side can take great encouragement from their performance against Norway and will be the favourites to secure their second group victory when they head to Gibraltar.
Latvia's position towards the bottom of the section is not a surprise, though, as they have never qualified for the finals of a World Cup and were never likely to threaten the Netherlands, Turkey or Norway.
While Gibraltar have recently been on the end of six-goal losses to the top two teams in the group, Latvia were only beaten 1-0 by the Netherlands and 2-1 by Turkey last month.
As mentioned, Kazakevics's side ran out 3-1 winners in the reverse match in September, but Gibraltar actually beat their opponents on Tuesday 1-0 in a friendly back in March 2018.
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Team News
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Gibraltar will be without the services of Jayce Olivero on Tuesday, as the 23-year-old is suspended following his red card against Turkey on Saturday.
Head coach Ribas is expected to shuffle his pack for this match, with Lee Casciaro, Mohamed Badr and Reece Styche all pushing to come into the starting XI.
Olivero started as the left-sided wing-back against Turkey, and it seems likely that his place in the team will now be taken by Joseph Chipolina.
As for Latvia, Alvis Jaunzems had to be replaced in the early stages of the second half against Norway and has therefore emerged as a doubt for Tuesday's clash.
Vladimirs Kamess is on standby to come into the starting side, but Kazakevics is expected to resist the temptation to make wholesale alterations for this match.
Vladislavs Gutkovskis has netted four times in 30 caps for his country and is again likely to get the nod in the centre-forward position for Latvia.
Gibraltar possible starting lineup:
Coleing; Sergeant, R Chipolina, Wiseman, Mouelhi, J Chipolina; Walker, Badr, Annesley, Casciaro; Styche
Latvia possible starting lineup:
Ozols; Savalnieks, Cernomordijs, Dubra, Jurkovskis; Emsis, Kigurs; Kamess, Uldrikis, Ciganiks; Gutkovskis
We say: Gibraltar 0-2 Latvia
It is difficult to back Gibraltar with any real confidence, even though this is, arguably, their easiest match of the group. Latvia have proved to be difficult to overcome in their recent fixtures, and we are expecting the visitors to end their qualification campaign on a positive note.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 42.83%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.92%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 1-0 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Latvia would win this match.
