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Gillingham
League One | Gameweek 30
Jan 29, 2022 at 3pm UK
Priestfield Stadium
Oxford United

Gillingham
2 - 7
Oxford Utd

Lloyd (62'), McKenzie (85')
Lee (11'), Carayol (18'), Dahlberg (47')
FT(HT: 0-3)
Bodin (8'), Brannagan (12' pen., 48' pen., 55' pen., 83' pen.), Taylor (19'), Forde (89')

Preview: Gillingham vs. Oxford United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Gillingham and Oxford United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Continuing their promotion push with a trip to lowly Gillingham, playoff contenders Oxford United will seek to build on last week's success.

After beating Sheffield Wednesday to end a three-game winless run, the U's sit sixth in the League One table, while their hosts languish in the relegation zone having last tasted victory back in October.


Match preview

Oxford United's manager Karl Robinson pictured with Cameron Brannagan on March 2, 2021© Reuters

Finding it tough to build on their strong first half of the season during a difficult January, a relieved Oxford United side secured all three points last time out to move back into the top six, amid the mad scramble for playoff places.

In a highly competitive division, Karl Robinson's men had been held by Cheltenham and then suffered successive 2-0 defeats heading into last Saturday's home clash with third-tier giants Sheffield Wednesday, so fighting back from a goal behind with half an hour to play will do wonders for their confidence.

Matty Taylor's brace - bringing him to 14 goals for the season - set the stage for a late Sam Winnall winner, as the former Wednesday striker headed home the deciding goal to end his old club's hopes of taking a point.

Now two points clear of Plymouth Argyle, who are their closest challengers in seventh, Oxford must surely aim to improve their patchy away record if they are to safely secure a place in the post-season proceedings.

Just four wins from 12 attempts on the road to date tells the tale of not only a certain fragility on enemy territory, but also the team's relative strength on home soil.

Without the Kassam Stadium faithful to roar them on this weekend, the U's will nonetheless expect to pick up three valuable points, due to their opponents' seemingly endless woes both away and at home.

Gillingham manager Steve Evans on December 7, 2021© Reuters

After a 14-match winless spell ultimately saw former manager Steve Evans leave the club and Steve Lovell take the role on a caretaker basis, Gillingham have yet to register a victory since, but at least ground out a point against Shrewsbury in midweek.

In his post-game comments, Lovell conceded that his team lacked the quality required to earn victory, but they did have more of the ball and created more openings than their visitors.

Nonetheless, second-bottom of League One and also the division's second-lowest scorers, the Gills managed only three shots on target and failed to score against fellow strugglers on home soil - and their goals-per-game rate still stands below one.

Only goal difference separates them from the foot of the table, as Doncaster have fared even worse defensively, and they are currently nine points adrift of safety, so former Gills striker and boss Lovell certainly has his work cut out to produce a miraculous revival.

He has spoken of having '19 cup finals left', and though victory in the first of that series may seem improbable, Gillingham did manage to hold their visitors to a 1-1 draw in September's reverse fixture.

Gillingham League One form:
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D

Oxford United League One form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

Gillingham's Max Ehmer receives medical attention after sustaining an injury on December 7, 2021© Reuters

Following a rare clean sheet on Tuesday, Gillingham could be poised to name the same back four that started against Shrewsbury, which would see German centre-back Max Ehmer joined by Jack Tucker at the heart of the hosts' defence.

Caretaker boss Steve Lovell brought both John Akinde and Daniel Phillips in to the starting XI and afterwards spoke of their positive impact, so the former could feature up front and the latter will be hopeful of retaining his spot in the engine room. However, fellow midfielder Ben Reeves remains sidelined through injury.

Top scorer Vadaine Oliver should be brought back into the team after attending the birth of his child on Tuesday, meaning Charlie Kelman would go head-to-head with Akinde to join him up front.

Meanwhile, Oxford's Herbie Kane misses out once again as he completes a three-match suspension following his red card against Lincoln earlier this month.

Karl Robinson will be forced to make a change in defence, as centre-back Jordan Thorniley was recalled from his loan spell by parent club Blackpool - Luke McNally should therefore return to the side.

After his 13th and 14th goals of the season helped the U's to victory last weekend - the second being his 50th goal for the club - Matty Taylor will again lead the line at Priestfield.

Gillingham possible starting lineup:
Dahlberg; Jackson, Tucker, Ehmer, McKenzie; Lee; Phillips, O'Keefe, Dempsey; Kelman, Oliver

Oxford United possible starting lineup:
Stevens; Long, Moore, McNally, Seddon; Brannagan, McGuane; Williams, Bodin, Holland; Taylor


SM words green background

We say: Gillingham 0-2 Oxford United

An away win is on the cards in this clash of two teams with very different ambitions for the rest of the campaign, as Oxford are well-placed to take advantage of their hosts' defensive frailties.

The pressure to produce is relentless at this stage of the season, given such a tightly-packed top half of the League One table, but the U's can make the most of their firepower to take a stranglehold of the game.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford United win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 22.22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Oxford United win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.1%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Gillingham win it was 1-0 (7.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-7 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Gillingham vs Oxford Utd

Gillingham
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Draw
20.0%
Oxford United
80.0%
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