Basement club Gremio will be looking to claim their first Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A victory of the season when they host Atletico Goianiense on Monday.
Tiago Nunes's men have claimed just two points from their opening six league matches, while the visitors have already reached double figures, accumulating 10 points from their first seven games.
Match preview
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Gremio lost their third successive away match in the league on Thursday, when they were beaten 2-0 by Juventude.
Despite having only 30% possession, strikes from Paulinho and Matheus Peixoto either side of half time ensured the hosts claimed all three points.
The Immortal Tricolor remain at the foot of the table and are one of only four sides who have yet to win in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A so far this season.
Despite a poor run of form in their opening six matches, Gremio can take some confidence into Monday's game, as they are unbeaten in their last seven meetings against Atletico Goianiense.
Victory this weekend could see Gremio climb off the bottom of the table, though they would remain inside the relegation zone.
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After losing 1-0 to league leaders Bragantino last Tuesday, Atletico Goianiense suffered their second successive league defeat when they were beaten 4-1 away at Atletico Mineiro on Thursday.
Mineiro raced into a three-goal lead thanks to a brace from Matias Zaracho and a strike from Ignacio Fernandez, before Marlon Freitas pulled one back for the visitors in first-half stoppage time to give them hope of a comeback.
However, Goianiense were unable to pose a threat after the break and Mineiro managed to restore their three-goal cushion when Fernandez scored his second of the game in the 89th minute, to seal an impressive win for the hosts.
That result has seen Eduardo Barroca's men drop down to 12th in the table, five points behind the top four and the same number of points clear of the relegation zone.
Goianiense have scored in five of their last seven meetings against Gremio but have failed to win on each occasion; claiming three points this time around could see them climb as high as fifth in the table.
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Team News
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Gremio have a lengthy list of absentees with Leo Chu (knee), Thiago Santos (thigh), Maicon (calf), Elias Manoel (ankle), Leo Gomes (knee) and Alisson (ankle) all on the treatment table, while Brenno Costa is self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus.
Centre-back Walter Kannemann has served his one-match suspension and is expected to return to the heart of the defence and start ahead of Paulo Miranda, who will likely drop to the bench.
Winger Douglas Costa – on loan from Italian giants Juventus – is set to keep his place in the side on the right-wing, with Ferreira likely to operate on the opposite flank.
As for Atletico Goianiense, Nathan Silva is back from serving a one-match suspension and is set to return to the heart of the defence to play alongside Eder.
The visitors, however, will be without midfielders Joao Paulo and Ronald who have respective muscle and thigh injuries.
Barroca is unlikely to make too many changes to his starting lineup, which could see the likes of Janderson, Arthur and Natanael all keep their places in attacking midfield roles, with Ze Roberto leading the line as the lone striker.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Rafinha, Geromel, Kannemann, Goiano; Santos, Bobsin, Henrique; Costa, Souza, Ferreira
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Fernando; Dudu, Silva, Eder, Carius; Freitas, Maranhao; Janderson, Arthur, Natanael; Roberto
We say: Gremio 1-2 Atletico Goianiense
Gremio will be desperate to claim their first league victory of the campaign, and with an impressive record against their opponents, they will fancy their chances on Monday.
However, we feel that Atletico Goianiense have enough quality in the final third to clinch a narrow away victory at the Arena do Gremio.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 54.04%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 20.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.06%) and 2-1 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for an Atletico Goianiense win it was 0-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
