Guinea and Malawi will both be looking to get off to a winning start in the Africa Cup of Nations when they lock horns at the Kouekong Stadium on Sunday.
The teams have been drawn in Group B alongside Senegal and Zimbabwe, who square off in the other fixture of the opening round.
Match preview
Guinea capped off their preparations for the AFCON by getting the better of Rwanda in an international friendly on Thursday.
Mohamed Bayo and skipper Naby Keita both netted in the opening 45 minutes to secure a well-deserved victory for Kaba Diawara's men.
That ended a seven-game winless run for Syli Nationale, who will be hoping to use the triumph as a turning point as they set out to enjoy a fruitful tournament in Cameroon.
First up is a crunch contest versus an opposing outfit who have won just one of the previous six meetings between the teams.
After failing to participate in the last five editions of the competition, Malawi were desperate to secure a ticket this time around and did so having picked up 10 points during the qualifiers.
The Flames have been on a woeful run of just one victory from the subsequent 11 games, which has seen them fail to qualify for November's World Cup.
Still seeking their maiden continental title, Meke Mwase's men go in search of an opening victory to set the tone for the rest of the competition.
Having never made it to the knockout stages in any of their previous appearances at this level, the East Africans will be keen to break that duck at the third time of asking.
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- L
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- W
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- W
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- L
Team News
RB Leipzig midfielder Ilaix Moriba featured in his first Guinea game last time out against Rwanda and is one to keep an eye on.
With nine goals in 17 Ligue 1 outings so far, Mohamed Bayo is expected to lead the line despite only making his debut last year.
Malawi's Charles Petro and Mark Fodya have both tested positive for COVID-19 and will sit out Monday's game.
However, Richard Mbulu, who had also tested positive for COVID-19 earlier, has now been cleared to join up with the rest of the squad.
Guinea possible starting lineup:
Keita; Sow, Camara, Conte, Kante; Keita, Diawara, Moriba; Camara, Bayo, Cisse
Malawi possible starting lineup:
Kankhobwe; Sanudi, Chirwa, Mzava, Chembezi; Idana, Chirwa, Mhone; Banda, Mbulu, Muyaba
We say: Guinea 2-1 Malawi
Guinea have more experience at this level and will be expected to come away with all three points in this one, and while we fancy Malawi to push them all the way, we are also backing Guinea to carry the day at the end of the 90 minutes.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 21.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.97%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Guinea in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Guinea.
Eq Guinea
Nigeria
Ivory Coast
Guinea-Bissau
Cape Verde
Egypt
Ghana
Mozambique
Senegal
Guinea
Cameroon
Gambia
Angola
Burkina Faso
Mauritania
Algeria
Mali
South Africa
Namibia
Tunisia
Morocco
Congo DR
Tanzania
Zambia
