Scottish side Hearts welcome Greek outfit PAOK to Tynecastle for the first leg of their Europa Conference League playoff tie on Thursday night.
While the Jam Tarts have won their last two home games by an aggregate score of 7-1, the White-Blacks head to Edinburgh after claiming successive 3-0 victories and have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches in all competitions.
Match preview
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Hearts enter the Europa Conference League playoff round after securing a 4-3 aggregate victory over Norwegian side Rosenborg in the third qualifying round.
The Jam Tarts lost the first leg 2-1 in Scandinavia and they were trailing after just five minutes in the reverse fixture at Tynecastle last week, but they managed to turn the tie on its head courtesy of goals from Cameron Devlin (2) and Lawrence Shankland – the former of whom netted a dramatic 92nd minute winner to send the hosts through on aggregate.
Frankie McAvoy's side followed up their impressive comeback victory with a comfortable 4-0 home win over Championship club Partick Thistle in the Scottish League Cup second round last weekend, with Brighton & Hove Albion loanee Odeluga Offiah scoring on his debut to help Hearts set up a quarter-final tie against Kilmarnock – who knocked out holders Celtic – next month.
Hearts, who have picked up four points from their opening two Premiership matches of the new season, automatically qualified for the Europa Conference League group stage last season and finished third in Group A behind Istanbul Basaksehir and eventually finalists Fiorentina.
However, the Edinburgh-based outfit must navigate their way past PAOK – who they have never faced in a competitive match before – if they wish to reach the same stage this term.
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PAOK have made an unbeaten start to the new season, winning three and drawing two of their opening five games, and they have already come through two rounds of Europa Conference League qualifiers to reach the playoff round.
A 4-1 aggregate victory over Israeli side Beitar Jerusalem in the second qualifying round was followed by a 3-0 aggregate triumph over Croatian club Hajduk Split in the third qualifying round, with the White-Blacks progressing from both rounds despite playing out goalless draws in the first leg.
Razvan Lucescu's side have since made a bright start to the new Greek Super League campaign after winning their opening game 3-0 on home soil against Asteras Tripolis on Saturday thanks to strikes from Andrija Zivkovic (2) and Stefan Schwab.
PAOK are seeking to avoid a second successive year without European competition and are bidding to qualify for the Europa Conference League for the second time since its launch in 2021-22 when they progressed to the quarter-finals.
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Team News
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Hearts will be without Craig Gordon (broken leg), Craig Halkett (knee), Peter Haring (ankle) and Finlay Pollock (unspecified) due to injury, but Beni Baningime is in contention to return after a spell out with a hamstring problem.
Alex Cochrane is yet to play in the Scottish Premiership due to a three-match suspension, but the left-back played for 61 minutes against Partick Thistle last weekend and he is expected to start again against PAOK.
Star striker Lawrence Shankland has made a bright start to the new campaign with four goals in five games, and he is set to lead the line once again on Thursday, with Yutaro Oda, Liam Boyce and Barrie McKay providing support in attack.
As for PAOK, former Aston Villa striker Mbwana Samatta is doubtful after hobbling off with an apparent ankle injury in the win over Asteras Tripolis last weekend.
Centre-back Ivan Nasberg recovered from injury to feature as a second-half substitute last time out and he will be in contention to feature again on Thursday, although William Troost-Ekong and Giannis Michailidis are set to continue in central defence.
Andrija Zivkovic have scored four goals in five games so far this season and he is expected to retain his place on the right flank, joining Taison and Brandon in the front three.
Hearts possible starting lineup:
Clark; Atkinson, Kent, Rowles, Cochrane; Sibbick, Nieuwenhof; Oda, Boyce, McKay; Shankland
PAOK possible starting lineup:
Kotarski; Kedziora, Troost-Ekong, Michailidis, Rahman; Schwab, Soares; Zivkovic, Konstantelias, Taison; Brandon
We say: Hearts 2-1 PAOK
Both teams enter Thursday's contest in good form and will fancy their chances of coming out on top over the course of the two-legged tie. However, we believe that Hearts will grind out a slender first-leg advantage on home soil.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 45.06%. A win for Hearts had a probability of 30.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Hearts win was 2-1 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for PAOK in this match.
Oliver Thomas
