Houston Dynamo and Austin FC are fighting to not finish bottom of the Western Conference, and their meeting on Sunday presents an opportunity for one of these sides to open a small gap between themselves and 13th spot.
Both teams have lost their last two outings, with the home side not seeing victory since the end of May, while Austin have recorded three wins since then.
Match preview
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The only factor that has prevented Houston from being left behind in bottom spot is the fact that they have picked up 10 points from draws this season, meaning that they remain level on points with Austin.
However, after a run of seven draws in eight matches from the end of June through until the beginning of August, Tab Ramos's side have lost seven of their last eight MLS games.
Last time out, Dynamo found themselves 2-0 down inside 20 minutes at the BBVA Stadium against Portland Timbers, and despite registering six shots on target, two more than their visitors, Houston could not find a way past goalkeeper Steve Clark and the team which has conceded the most goals in the Western Conference.
That result means that Dynamo have conceded at least two goals in each of their last seven fixtures, and add that statistic to striker Maximiliano Urruti's struggles at the other end of the pitch, with his goal drought now extended to 10 games, then there is clear reason why Houston are on a poor run of form.
The blame is not solely with Urruti, as he has been Houston's biggest threat in front of goal along with Fabrice-Jean Picault, but with the side conceding goals it puts the team on the back foot and makes it more difficult for the attacking players, who are constantly finding themselves chasing the game.
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Sebastian Driussi had put Austin in a positive position heading into the final 20 minutes against Vancouver Whitecaps last time out, but Josh Wolff's side allowed their hosts to turn the game around and take three points, courtesy of Deiber Caicedo's strike seven minutes from time.
That game was slightly less eventful than Austin's previous outing against Dallas, with that match having seen eight goals before the 70-minute mark, with the result eventually coming in as a 5-3 defeat for Austin.
Scoring three goals against Dallas was the second consecutive time Austin had scored three times in one game, and they will want to get back to that form in front of goal on Sunday, especially considering Houston have conceded at least twice in their last seven matches.
Austin will also take confidence from their last meeting with Houston which came on August 5, when the Texas team won 3-2 at the Q2 Stadium, thanks to a brace from Tomas Pochettino and a strike from Cecilio Dominguez.
Wolff's side have one game in hand on Dallas, who sit just above them in 11th, so victory against Houston on Sunday will leave the side just three points off Dallas and they may be able to build belief that they can start to climb the table.
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Team News
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Adalberto Carrasquilla, Ariel Lassiter, Boniek Garcia, Darwin Ceren and Maynor Figueroa have all been away on international duty this month, and all of those players except Lassiter and Garcia played for their countries on Thursday.
Ramos will have to assess whether those players need rest after their international appearances, but he will also be without Corey Baird and youngster Niccolo Lemoine through injury.
Houston's back four - consisting of Zarek Valentin, Tim Parker, Teenage Hadebe and Adam Lundqvist - has mostly been the selected defensive unit, and they are expected to start again on Sunday.
Austin striker Danny Hoesen has been ruled out for the rest of the season since picking up a hip injury in June, so Dominguez is likely to lead the line for the visitors.
Left-back Ben Sweat will not feature on the pitch until December, after damaging cruciate ligaments in April, while Aaron Schoenfeld is closing in on a return to action but Sunday's fixture will come too soon for the striker.
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Nelson; Lundqvist, Hadebe, Parker, Valentin; Rodriguez, Jones, Vera; Picault, Urruti, Pasher
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Besler, Cascante, Jimenez; Ring, Fagundez; Gallagher, Driussi, Pochettino; Dominguez
We say: Houston Dynamo 0-2 Austin FC
Austin have better results under their belt more recently than Houston, and the visitors will be looking to emulate what the previous seven teams have managed against Dynamo and that is score at least twice.
Having scored three against Portland and Dallas, Austin should be confident of doing just that and Houston are likely to have no reply on Sunday.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 54.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 21.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.78%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
