Huddersfield Town play host to Barnsley on Friday evening knowing that victory will mathematically guarantee their place in the Championship playoffs.
At a time when the Terriers can also move to within one point of second-placed Bournemouth, Barnsley must win at the John Smith's Stadium to avoid relegation to League One.
Match preview
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Ahead of this campaign, Huddersfield were regarded as little more than outsiders for promotion, a consequence of last season's struggles, but few teams will want to meet the Terriers if they secure their place in the top six.
Holding an eight-point advantage with three matches remaining, finishing in the playoffs should be a formality, although Carlos Corberan will be challenging his team to maintain their current form heading into that stage of the season.
Ten points and three clean sheets have been posted from their last four outings, Huddersfield's most recent success coming by a 2-0 scoreline at promotion rivals Middlesbrough on Easter Monday.
The landscape would have changed drastically had their been a contrasting outcome, but rare goals from Naby Sarr and backup forward Jordan Rhodes secured the win in the North East.
With Bournemouth facing Fulham on Saturday, there is a realistic chance that Huddersfield could end the weekend within a point of second spot, albeit with the Cherries still possessing two matches in hand.
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As far as Barnsley are concerned, there is an inevitability about their relegation now they need to win their remaining four fixtures of the season.
Since Poya Asbaghi took over on November 21, just four wins have been recorded from 24 outings, a return of 19 points during that period the joint-lowest in the division.
If the Tykes were realistically going to have any chance of getting out of trouble, they needed to beat rivals Peterborough United on Easter Monday, but they fell to a likely-pivotal 2-0 reverse in front of their own supporters.
Barnsley have now also gone five matches without success, and although their remaining three fixtures can be placed into the favourable bracket, trying to claim three points against opponents who have suffered just two league defeats since the start of December feels a monumental task.
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Team News
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Despite Monday's success at the Riverside Stadium, Corberan is expected to make changes and revert back to a more attack-minded formation.
With Levi Colwill and Danny Ward carrying hip and hamstring injuries respectively, Sarr and Rhodes could retain their positions in the Huddersfield XI.
Daniel Sinani is in line to return to the side, while either Duane Holmes or Josh Koroma should come in for the injured Sorba Thomas.
Although Cauley Woodrow has made two substitute outings since his return from a knee injury, Asbaghi may regard this game as too soon for a starting role.
While alterations are possible on the back of a defeat, Barnsley may also line up with the same 11 players unless Matthew Wolfe is drafted into the midfield.
Huddersfield Town possible starting lineup:
Nicholls; Turton, Lees, Sarr, Toffolo; Hogg, Russell; Sinani, O'Brien, Koroma; Rhodes
Barnsley possible starting lineup:
Walton; Brittain, Andersen, Kitching, Vita; Palmer, Gomes; Styles, Bassi, Quina, Morris
We say: Huddersfield Town 2-0 Barnsley
Now at the point of no return, it remains to be seen whether Barnsley will approach this contest any differently. Nevertheless, regardless of the Tykes' strategy, it is difficult to back against Huddersfield coming through this contest in a professional manner, potentially scoring in each half to secure victory.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Huddersfield Town win with a probability of 54.53%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 20.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Huddersfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.39%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Huddersfield Town would win this match.
