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La Liga | Gameweek 30
Apr 9, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio El Alcoraz
Elche

Huesca
3 - 1
Elche

Mir (3', 88' pen.), Ramirez (30')
Gomez (60'), Ferreiro (71')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Vavro (4' og.)
Fidel (52'), Gonzalo (90+3')

Preview: Huesca vs. Elche - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Friday's La Liga clash between Huesca and Elche, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Huesca will be looking to move out of the La Liga relegation zone when they welcome fellow strugglers Elche to Estadio El Alcoraz on Friday night.

The home side recorded a 2-0 win over Levante last time out to move off the bottom of the table, and Pacheta's side now sit 18th, two points behind 17th-placed Elche, with both teams on the same number of games.


Match preview

Huesca's Javi Galan celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates in February 2021© Reuters

Rafa Mir scored twice for Huesca in Valencia last Friday as the strugglers recorded a 2-0 victory over Levante to move off the bottom of the table; Pacheta's team will now enter their next match knowing that another win would see them move above Elche and out of the bottom three.

The reigning Segunda Division champions are bidding to make it back-to-back seasons at this level of football for the first time in their history, and the manner of their performance against Levante last time out suggested that they are more than capable of avoiding the drop.

Huesca have only actually lost 13 of their 29 La Liga matches this season, which is far from disastrous considering their position in the table, and a win on Friday would move them out of the bottom three and to within three points of 15th-placed Getafe.

The promoted club have the second-worst home record in Spain's top flight this season, which will not fill their supporters with too much confidence heading into this match, but Elche have struggled on their travels, picking up just 10 points from 15 matches, recording just two wins in the process.

Elche's Dani Calvo celebrates scoring their first goal with Cifu on March 13, 2021© Reuters

There is simply no downplaying the importance of this match to either side, with Elche also fighting for their lives towards the bottom of the table.

Los Franjiverdes are looking to make it back-to-back seasons at this level for the first time since 2014-15, but it has been a tough campaign to date, with a total of 26 points from 29 matches leaving them in 17th position in the table, just two points above 18th-placed Huesca.

There are only actually four points separating the bottom five teams in Spain's top flight, and it looks set to be a fascinating battle to stay in the division over the coming weeks.

Fran Escriba's side will enter this match off the back of successive draws with Getafe and Real Betis, but they have picked up just two points from the last 12 available.

The last two meetings between these two sides have finished level, but Huesca recorded a 1-0 victory when the pair last locked horns at Estadio El Alcoraz in the Segunda Division in October 2019.

Huesca La Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Elche La Liga form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • D



Team News

Huesca's Rafa Mir in action against Real Madrid on February 6, 2021© Reuters

Huesca will again be without the services of Gaston Silva, Antonio Valera and Javi Ontiveros on Friday evening through injury, while Pablo Maffeo is likely to miss out with the shoulder problem that he suffered during the 2-0 win over Levante last time out.

Pedro Lopez could take Maffeo's spot in the starting XI, while there might also be a change in the middle of the defence, with Dimitris Siovas carrying a knock, which could see Denis Vavro feature in the side.

There are unlikely to be any alterations in the final third, though, with Sandro Ramirez set to join leading scorer Rafa Mir, who has found the back of the net on 10 occasions in La Liga this term.

As for Elche, Lucas Boye is available following a one-game suspension, and the 25-year-old is expected to return to the starting side at the expense of Guido Carrillo.

Escriba's side did not pick up any injury problems during the clash with Betis, meaning that the strugglers could have a full squad to choose from on Friday night.

Antonio Barragan is available following a recent injury, but the Spaniard might again start on the bench with Helibelton Palacios set to retain his spot at right-back.

Huesca possible starting lineup:
Fernandez; Insua, Pulido, Vavro; Lopez, Ferreiro, Mosquera, Seoane, Galan; Mir, Sandro

Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Palacios, Verdu, Calvo, Mojica; Morente, Guti, Marcone, Fidel; Milla, Boye


SM words green background

We say: Huesca 1-1 Elche

Both managers will be desperate not to lose on Friday night, which could create a tense and cagey affair. It would not be a surprise to see a home or an away victory, but there is not much between the sides in terms of quality, and we are backing a low-scoring draw here.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Huesca win with a probability of 49.15%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Elche had a probability of 23.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Huesca win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.2%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.63%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Huesca would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Huesca vs Elche

Huesca
45.2%
Draw
32.1%
Elche
22.6%
84
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