Inter Miami will try to get their 2021 campaign back on track when they host Orlando City on Friday at DRV PNK Stadium.
The Herons have lost their last three matches in the regular season, while their Florida rivals are currently in second place in the Eastern Conference, winning back-to-back games.
Match preview
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There was a lot of hype at the start of the 2021 MLS campaign, a lot of it centred around Inter Miami, but so far, it has not been anything more than that.
The side from South Beach have been disappointing, going goalless in their last 275 minutes of action and losing three games in a row, including two straight to DC United.
It is hardly what David Beckham and the ownership group had envisioned going into their second MLS campaign, especially given the additions of veterans like Gregore, Blaise Matuidi and former Seattle Sounders defender Kelvin Leerdam.
Manager Phil Neville inherited a side who won only seven regular-season games in their inaugural MLS campaign and, so far, they have failed to show much progress in their sophomore year, with just two wins and two draws from their opening nine games.
Following their 1-0 defeat last Saturday against the Black-and-Red, Neville praised his team for showing a solid mentality, along with togetherness and a strong commitment throughout the 90 minutes.
The former Manchester United defender may have been impressed with his team, however, the results so far for the Herons suggest that they cannot handle the big stage, which is something no one could have seen coming, given the veteran leadership they possess.
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Orlando City have come out of the international break like a different squad, who are back to playing to their capabilities, winning two straight games, as they are right in the thick of the race for first place in the Eastern Conference, just two points behind the New England Revolution.
The Lions had a minimal roster turnover during the 2020 off-season, and in the early stages of this campaign, that chemistry on the pitch is evident, particularly at the back where the likes of Antonio Carlos and Rodrigo Schlegel, look poised and compact in central defence.
Through their first nine games, Oscar Pareja has seen his side show incredible patience in front of goal, while making the most of the scoring opportunities provided to them.
They have scored multiple goals in only three matches in 2021 and have only fired more than five shots on target once, and that was on Tuesday in a 5-0 thumping of the San Jose Earthquakes.
When they do get a shot on goal, it usually ends up in the back of the net, with the Lions scoring on eight of their last 12 targeted efforts over their previous two matches.
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Team News
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Inter Miami were reduced to nine men in their previous match, meaning they will be without Gregore and Ryan Shawcross through suspension, while centre-back Ian Fray is out with a cruciate ligament rupture.
Striker Gonzalo Higuain was the last player to score a regular-season goal for the Herons, notching the game-winner in the final five minutes against FC Cincinnati.
Orlando are likely to start Brandon Austin in goal for a third consecutive match, with their starter, Pedro Gallese, still away on international duty for Peru at the Copa America.
Austin had to make just one save against San Jose for his first career MLS clean sheet in his second start for the club.
Midfielder Sebastian Mendez is also competing in the Copa America with Ecuador, while striker Alexandre Pato is still recovering from his knee surgery last month.
Striker Tesho Akindele was named to the MLS Team of the Week after notching a goal and an assist in a 3-2 victory over Toronto FC, and he followed that up with another assist on Tuesday in the rout of San Jose.
Daryl Dike and Benji Michel each notched a pair of goals versus the Quakes, while Nani scored his team-leading fifth goal of the season, adding a pair of assists as well.
Inter Miami possible starting lineup:
McCarthy; Guediri, Gonzalez, Figal, Leerdam; Matuidi, Ulloa; Shea, Chapman, Morgan; G. Higuain
Orlando City possible starting lineup:
Austin; Moutinho, Schlegel, Carlos, Smith; Perea, Urso; Nani, Pereyra, Van der Water; Akindele
We say: Inter Miami 1-2 Orlando City
Miami have never lost to Orlando in the regular season, winning both encounters in 2020, and they should be well refreshed heading into this contest on Friday.
Unfortunately for the Herons, the Lions are on a roll, winning four of their last five matches and clicking on both the offensive and defensive side, and they are within striking distance of the top spot in the Eastern Conference, which will be more added incentive to play well on Friday.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Inter Miami had a probability of 33.37% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Inter Miami win was 1-0 (9.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Orlando City would win this match.
