Inter Milan start a hectic December schedule at home to struggling Spezia on Wednesday, having closed in on the Serie A summit with some superb recent form.
Returning to San Siro just a point behind city rivals Milan and four adrift of leaders Napoli, the Nerazzurri will be seeking an eighth win from 10, while their visitors are languishing just a point above the drop zone after their latest loss on Sunday.
Match preview
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Almost without warning, last season's champions have crept back into the thick of the Scudetto race, as momentum builds under the guidance of Simone Inzaghi.
Having improved on Antonio Conte's failure to progress last term, Inzaghi's side have already confirmed their place in the last 16 of the Champions League for the first time since 2011-12, while four wins from their last six Serie A games sees them sitting on the shoulders of the previously distant top two - with a number of favourable fixtures to come before the winter break.
Indeed, the Nerazzurri's only dropped points in the league since mid-October have been creditable draws with major rivals Juventus and Milan, and they followed up an absorbing 3-2 win over Napoli with Saturday's regulation defeat of Venezia.
The key to their success has been a diverse attack, as Inter's tally of 34 goals so far ranks them among the top echelon across Europe during the current campaign.
Not only that, but Inzaghi has managed to maintain his new club's reputation as serial winners on home turf since he arrived, despite cost-cutting measures in the summer transfer market.
In all, Inter have won the highest number of home games across the top five European leagues since the beginning of the last season, so have no reason to expect anything other than three points at the final whistle on Wednesday.
A 2-1 win for the Nerazzurri against Spezia in their only other top-flight meeting, last term, featured goals from Romelu Lukaku and Achraf Hakimi. Both have long since departed for pastures new, but a retooled Inter seem set to march on in their absence.
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Serie A's leakiest defence shipped another goal on Sunday, as Spezia fell to a 1-0 defeat versus Bologna at their Stadio Alberto Picco headquarters.
Conceding late on - to a Marko Arnautovic penalty awarded for handball against striker M'Bala Nzola - meant that Thiago Motta's men are now four points adrift of the closest side above them in the standings, and are just keeping their heads above the dreaded dotted line.
After an impressive debut season in the Italian top flight, Nzola has lost his way somewhat this year: indicative of the struggles the Ligurian outfit have faced in just their second-ever Serie A campaign.
While finding the net has been an issue for the Aquilotti, it has been at the other end where most of the damage has been done this term. In fact, ahead of their trip to Milan, they have lost four consecutive away matches by conceding goals at a dizzying average of 3.5 per game.
As if that was not enough to cast them into terror before clashing with the champions, Spezia have also been beaten in each of their previous Serie A fixtures played in Lombardy - a run including a loss each to Milan and Inter, plus a pair of defeats by Atalanta.
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Team News
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Simone Inzaghi has been forced to add two further players to his injury list following the weekend's action, as wing-back Matteo Darmian and central defender Andrea Ranocchia both suffered thigh injuries and could now be out of commission until after Christmas.
Dutch defender Stefan de Vrij will also remain on the sidelines due to a hamstring injury, so the back three is likely to remain unchanged in his absence and that of Ranocchia. Meanwhile, Denzel Dumfries should deputise for Darmian.
Lautaro Martinez is expected to come in to the front two after scoring as a substitute last weekend, so Joaquin Correa may drop out, while Inzaghi could offer opportunities to squad players such as Matias Vecino and Stefano Sensi, given a busy schedule ahead.
After failing to score last time out, Spezia can welcome back Emmanuel Gyasi from suspension on Wednesday to bolster their forward line, and the Ghanaian winger is a probable starter for the away side at San Siro.
Thiago Motta rarely deviates from a four-man defence, often with two wide strikers supporting the frontman, but did pack the back line against Atalanta - though to little effect, as they were thumped 5-2 - and could do so again.
The former Inter midfielder is set to be without midfield pair Leo Sena and Mehdi Bourabia again, but Daniele Verde may be passed fit to return and could even feature as part of the Aquilotti's attack.
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Dimarco, Bastoni, Skriniar; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Vecino, Perisic; Martinez, Dzeko
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolaou, Bastoni; Kovalenko, Sala, Maggiore; Gyasi, Antiste; Nzola
We say: Inter Milan 3-0 Spezia
There should be no expectations other than a comfortable home win at San Siro, due to the combination of Inter's fine form and Spezia's calamitous approach to defending.
Even if Simone Inzaghi opts to rotate his resources, the quality at his disposal far outweighs his imperiled counterpart, whose reign as boss of the visitors could be coming to an end if their fortunes do not improve soon.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 82.57%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 6.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.11%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (1.96%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
