Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Croatia win with a probability of 46.96%. A draw had a probability of 26.54% and a win for Belgium had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Croatia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.93%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%) , while for a Belgium win it was 0-1 (7.54%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.