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FC Copenhagen
Europa League | Round of 16
Aug 5, 2020 at 5.55pm UK
Telia Parken
Istanbul Basaksehir

Copenhagen
3 - 0
Istanbul

Wind (4', 52' pen.), Falk (62')
Bartolec (88')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Elia (84')

Preview: Copenhagen vs. Istanbul Basaksehir - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Europa League fixture between Copenhagen and Istanbul Basaksehir, including team news and predicted lineups.

Copenhagen face Istanbul Basaksehir in the second leg of their Europa League last-16 tie looking to respond from the 1-0 defeat which they suffered in Turkey earlier this year.

Whoever progresses on aggregate will almost certainly face Manchester United in the quarter-finals of the competition.


Match preview

Copenhagen boss Stale Solbakken on October 24, 2019© Reuters

While some of the teams at the last-16 stage of this competition are squaring off in one-off ties, Copenhagen and Basaksehir are meeting having already played each other back in March.

A late penalty from Edin Visca has given Basaksehir a narrow advantage ahead of their trip to Denmark, and there will now be a desire to go as far in this competition as possible after claiming their first ever Turkish league title last month.

A return of 16 points from eight matches after the resumption was enough for Okan Buruk's side to finish four points clear of nearest challengers Trabzonspor.

With that success earning Champions League football for next season, the pressure is now off, and Basaksehir will be regarded as a threat if they can avoid defeat on Wednesday evening.

Former Chelsea man Demba Ba found some form during the final weeks of the domestic campaign, contributing three goals from his most recent five appearances.

From Copenhagen's perspective, they head into this contest having surrendered the league crown to FC Midtjylland, finishing as runners-up by a 14-point margin.

While Stale Solbakken witnessed his side win their final two matches, they had previously gone six outings without success.

Although the club legend does not find himself under any immediate pressure, there will be an acknowledgement that he can help his cause with further progression in this competition.

Copenhagen have never reached the last eight of a major European tournament, and there is an argument that they will struggle to ever have a better opportunity to make the next stage.

Copenhagen Europa League form: DWLDWL
Copenhagen form (all competitions): LLDLWW

Istanbul Basaksehir Europa League form: WLWLWW
Istanbul Basaksehir form (all competitions): DWWLWL


Team News

Martin Skrtel pictured in December 2018© Reuters

Buruk must decide whether to hand a recall to Martin Skrtel, who remained as an unused substitute for the club's final league game.

After being introduced as a replacement, Gael Clichy contributed two assists, which should lead to him coming back into the team.

Solbakken could look to avoid making any significant changes to the team which began the win over Nordsjaelland on July 26.

That would leave Dame N'Doye, who has netted twice in three Europa League appearances, having to settle for a place among the substitutes.

Copenhagen possible starting lineup:
Johnsson; Varela, Papagiannopoulos, Nelsson, Bengtsson; Zeca, Thomsen; Stage, Wind, Daramy; Kaufmann

Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Caicara, Topal, Ponck, Clichy; Epureanu, Kahveci; Visca, Aleksic, Crivelli; Ba


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Copenhagen 1-2 Istanbul Basaksehir

While Copenhagen usually perform well on home territory, the current restrictions regarding crowds will only play into Basaksehir's favour. With that in mind, we feel that an early away goal will put the visitors on the way to a comfortable night.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Copenhagen win with a probability of 48.92%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Istanbul Basaksehir had a probability of 24.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Copenhagen win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.43%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Istanbul Basaksehir win it was 0-1 (8.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Copenhagen would win this match.


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TeamPWDLPTS
1Lazio440012
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6Spurs43019
7FCSB43019
8Lyon42117
9Rangers42117
10Olympiacos42117
11Bodo/Glimt42117
12Midtjylland42117
13Ferencvaros42026
14Man Utd41306
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16AZ42026
17Besiktas42026
18Hoffenheim41215
19Roma41215
20Fenerbahce41215
21Elfsborg41124
22Braga41124
23Porto41124
24Slavia Prague41124
25Real Sociedad41124
26Malmo41033
27FC Twente40313
28Qarabag41033
29Union SG40222
30Nice40222
31RFS40222
32Ludogorets40131
33PAOK40131
34Athletic Club00000
35M. Tel Aviv40040
36Dynamo Kiev40040


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