Good evening! Thank you very much for joining Sports Mole for tonight's Euro 2016 qualifier between Bulgaria and Italy at the Stadion Vasil Levski in Sofia. Earlier results today have made victories for both these teams even more important going into this match, so we should have an interesting encounter on our hands here. First things first, let's take a look at the two teams on show for you tonight...

BULGARIA STARTING XI: Mihaylov; Manolev, Bodurov, A Aleksandrov, Minev; Milanov, Gadzhev, Dyakov, M Aleksandrov; Popov, Mitsanski

ITALY STARTING XI: Sirigu; Chiellini, Bonucci, Barzagli; Antonelli, Bertolacci, Verratti, Candreva, Darmian; Immobile, Zaza

What can we make of those two sides, then? Well, the familiar names for fans of English football in the Bulgarian set-up with be Fulham's Nikolay Bodurov, who starts in defence as expected this evening. There is no spot for former Manchester City striker Valeri Bojinov, however, while Celtic's Aleksandar Tonev and Simeon Slavchev of Bolton also miss out on a place in the starting XI.

Ivelin Popov is likely to be the main threat to Italy's defence tonight, with the striker the player with both the most caps and the most goals in the current Bulgaria squad. It is a relatively inexperienced group of players, with Popov the only one to have made more than 50 appearances for his country, and his 51 caps so far have yielded a return of just eight goals.

Speaking of experience, there is a big chunk of it missing from Italy's goal tonight as Gianluigi Buffon misses out again, with Salvatore Sirigu starting in his place. Bonucci is straight back into the side having returned from suspension, while Barzagli was recalled for the first time since the World Cup for these two matches and also slots straight into the defence. Notable absentees include the likes of Pirlo and De Rossi, so Verratti gets the nod in the middle of the park.

Up front, Immobile and Zaza are charged with breaking through this Bulgaria defence, but the centre-forward position is one that Italy have a bit of a problem with at the moment. They have a number of talented players capable of filling the role, but defenders Chiellini and Bonucci are the highest scorers at international level in the current squad, with six and three respectively. No other player in the entire squad has more than one goal for the Azzurri.

Bulgaria will be hoping that they can keep that rather toothless Italy attack out tonight, then, but there is no doubt that they go into this match as major underdogs. Results have been relatively disappointing in the qualifying campaign so far and, just short of the halfway point, they face an uphill battle if they are to reach Euro 2016 now. They sit five points off the playoff spot currently occupied by Norway, but the good news for Bulgaria is that the Scandinavians were comfortably beaten by Croatia earlier today.

That means that Ivaylo Petev's side would move to within two points of third place with a surprise victory tonight, although even a draw would be a good result for the hosts tonight. They have averaged a point per game from their four qualifying matches so far and, while that is unlikely to be good enough to give them a chance of competing in France next year, their matches against the likes of Italy and Croatia are unlikely to be the games that make the most difference in their bid.

The hosts are without a win in four matches coming into this one, with their solitary victory in the qualifying campaign so far coming on matchday one when they edged to a 2-1 victory over Azerbaijan. They would have been hoping to double that win tally at home to Malta in their most recent competitive fixture, but they could only manage a draw in that game, providing Malta with their only point of the campaign so far.

Bulgaria have only won one of their last eight European Championship qualifiers dating back to October 2010, while they are winless in their last six Euro qualifiers at home. Their goal in the 1-1 draw against Malta at the end of last year is the only time they have found the back of the net in that six-game run too, stretching back to November 2007. Bulgaria did actually go 12 European home qualifiers unbeaten from 1999-2007, but they can't buy a competitive win in front of their own fans at the moment. Petev will be hoping to change that in what is his first competitive game at the helm.

As for Italy, they began the day level on points with Croatia and only behind the Group H leaders on goal difference, but a fine performance in an earlier kickoff has seen Croatia move three points clear. They were reduced to 10 men against Norway, but that didn't stop them going on to win 5-1, extending their goal advantage as well. Italy, therefore, will go into this match knowing that they not only need to win, but could also do with racking up a few goals in the process.

Italy haven't exactly found goals easy to come by under Antonio Conte, however. As expected, the Azzurri are in the automatic qualifying spots for Euro 2016, but their performances in Group H haven't been entirely convincing so far. They have only won one game by more than a one-goal margin, only scraping past minnows such as Azerbaijan and Malta. They also needed a late goal to beat Albania in a friendly in their last outing, so don't expect them to sweep Bulgaria aside tonight.

They are still unbeaten under Conte, however, winning five of their six matches and only dropping points in a draw with Croatia in the current qualifying campaign. That follows a disappointing World Cup in which they were eliminated at the group stage, losing 1-0 to both Costa Rica and Uruguay having opened up with a win over England. Such an early exit brought about questions over the direction of the national team but, while the performances have been nothing more than decent, the results are at least pointing towards an improvement.

Qualifying campaigns have always been fairly straightforward for Italy anyway. They are unbeaten in their last 24 European Championship qualifiers, a run which stretches back to September 2006 and extends to 44 qualifying games overall if you include their World Cup campaigns. They have won 20 of those 24 Euro qualifiers and 10 of their last 12 away from home, keeping six clean sheets in the process.

PREDICTION: We're just a couple of minutes away from kickoff in Sofia, which means that it is time for a prediction! Neither of these teams give away or score too many goals, so I'm extending a fairly low-scoring affair tonight. Italy enter the match as favourites and, while Bulgaria is not an easy place to go, the visitors should have enough about them to pick up the win here. I'll go for a 1-0 away victory.

KICKOFF: Italy get us underway in Sofia as they look to keep up with Croatia, and they have a glorious chance to score within 20 seconds as the ball falls to Immobile inside the box. However, with time and space, he puts the shot wide of the target on the turn. The keeper got an important touch to that and it will be an early corner now...

Italy, as expected, have taken control of this match early on and they are wasted no time in committing men forward. They want a quick goal here.

They wanted an early goal, and they have one! What a start from Italy, but the opener comes from a couple of defensive errors as a ball from the left causes all sorts of problems. Mihaylov tries to claim it, but can only tip it into Minev, who can't avoid bundling it into his own net. Zaza was in close attendance, but the ball seemed to come off Minev last.

SAVE! Mihaylov is called into action again here as he tips a powerful 25-yard free kick from Candreva wide of the target. He again comes to claim the resulting corner, only to lose his aerial battle with Chiellini, but the referee awards a free kick as the ball is hacked off the line.

Well, what a start this has been from Italy. I said they haven't been sweeping teams aside in this qualification campaign so far, but they could have had three goals inside the opening 10 minutes here. Bulgaria don't know what has hit them.

Immobile makes it in behind the Bulgaria defence again, finding space down the left channel only to see his effort from a tight angle blocked. The hosts need to gather themselves here as they could find the game out of reach before half time if it carries on like this.

Where on earth has that come from?! Having been camped in their own half for much of the opening 10 minutes, Bulgaria suddenly find themselves level on their first attack of the game! Bonucci steps out of defence but can't make the interception as the ball reaches Popoc, who takes a touch before firing a low effort beyond Sirigu and into the bottom far corner.

Well, I predicted a low-scoring affair before the game, but it has certainly exceeded expectations so far! Italy could already be out of sight in this one, but Bulgaria have taken their one sight of goal and we are all square after a frantic start.

Oh my word, Bulgaria have turned this one on its head! The hosts now lead as Milanov clips a cross into the middle that Mitsanski gets his head to and flicks into the same corner that Popov fired into just six minutes ago. What a recovery from Bulgaria!

This is incredible how Italy are losing this game. They could have been three up inside 10 minutes but, in fairness to Bulgaria, they have responded well and been really clinical.

CHANCE! Oh my word, what a chance for Italy to level things up again! A free kick is floated over to the back post and Immobile is completely unmarked just a few yards out. It should be a simple finish for the striker, but he plants his header wide of the far post when he had to score. That was an absolute sitter!

Italy are back on the front foot now, but they seem a little shell shocked by what has happened in the opening 20 minutes so far. It certainly hasn't been the tight, low-scoring affair I was expecting!

Bulgaria get a chance to break forward, but Barzagli is quickly across to snuff out the danger. Bulgaria have looked dangerous whenever they have broken into the Italy half so far.

The match has settled down a little after a frantic opening 20 minutes or so, but both teams still look capable of scoring when they come forward. Italy are seeing more of the ball, but the hosts are breaking quickly whenever possible and that is causing the visitors problems.

Italy have enjoyed 64% of possession in this match so far, but they do look vulnerable at the back. That has been a strength of the Italian game over the years, but right now Conte will be concerned.

Zaza looks to restore parity for his side as he gets a yard of space on the edge of the box before curling an effort towards the far corner. It takes a deflection on its way behind for another Italy corner, but Immobile isn't too happy that Zaza went for goal instead of passing the ball.

Zaza is fortunate not to go into the book here as he hacks down Bodurov after the Bulgaria defender had got past him. The referee has a long chat with the Italian and gives him his final warning, but he has been a little lenient there.

Bulgaria win a free kick in a very promising position, with Popov and Manolev the man interested in going for goal here. It looks like the former will take on the duties...

OFF THE BAR! It is a fine effort from Popov as he curls an effort Stoichkov would be proud of over the wall and towards the top corner. Sirigu is worried by it, but it clips the top of the crossbar on its way over. Bulgaria were not far away from taking a 3-1 lead there! Moments later, Sirigu needs to be on his toes to mop up a short back-pass that almost gifted the hosts another goal.

The hosts look to be through on goal again here as a ball forward splits the defence. Milanov only has the keeper to beat, but the linesman's flag is up. It was a very close one, but the assistant just about got it right.

Ambitious from Bonucci as the ball runs loose a good 35-40 yards from goal. The defender tries his luck from distance, but unsurprisingly his speculative effort is never troubling the keeper.

Italy threaten again here as the ball is lifted into the box and kept alive at the back post. The keeper comes out to claim and, not for the first time tonight, gets nowhere near it. Zaza is lurking and looks like he may have a sitter to level things up, but the ball is hooked away.

There will be just the one minute of added time at the end of this first half.

Italy are really pushing for an equaliser before the break here. They have two corners in quick succession and first Darmian sees an effort deflected narrowly off target before the second delivery also drops to a blue shirt. Again the shot is blocked, however, and Bulgaria survive.

Damir Skomina brings an end to an action-packed first half in Sofia, and it is the hosts Bulgaria who go into the break with the lead over Italy. In truth, the visitors could and probably should be out of sight given the chances they have created, but Bulgaria have been clinical and will argue that they are worthy of at least being level. As things stand, though, they are on course for just their third ever victory over Italy and will keep their Euro 2016 hopes alive in the process.

The opening goal came through a Minev own goal after just three minutes as Bulgaria keeper Mihaylov failed to cut out a cross from the left, only flapping at it and directing it onto his defender, who bundled it into his own net. Zaza was also at the back post waiting to finish, but it will go down as the own goal.

It was all Italy in the opening 10 minutes, but Bulgaria levelled things up very much against the run of play through Popov. Bonucci came forward to try to intercept a pass from the right, but he failed to prevent it reaching Popov, whose first touch put him on the front foot and set up a shooting opportunity. There was still a lot to do, but Popov proceeded to rifle a low effort into the bottom far corner, leaving Sirigu no chance.

Sirigu couldn't do anything about the second Bulgaria goal either Mitsanski did really well to get in front of his man and flick a header into the same corner that Popov found six minutes earlier. The Italian defence will feel that they should have done better with both goals, but credit must also go to both strikers for the killer touch they showed in front of goal.

Italy had a chance to break the deadlock inside 20 seconds as they made a blistering start to the match. Immobile found himself with only the keeper to beat and with no defenders around him, but Mihaylov made a crucial save to deny the striker. Immobile was also guilty of missing an absolute sitter later in the match too as he planted a header wide when unmarked from just a few yards out. He simply had to score, but he doesn't appear to have his shooting boots on tonight.

KICKOFF: Bulgaria get us back underway for this second half as they look to complete the job and pull off a major shock here. Can they do it, or will Italy recover to close the gap on Croatia?

It will be interesting to see what approach Bulgaria take in this second half. They were most dangerous when they committed men forward on the counter-attack in the first half, but they will be increasingly wary of leaving things open at the back now with this lead to defend. The pressure is sure to come from Italy, though, so a third Bulgarian goal could be crucial.

Milanov has a chance to provide that third goal with a free kick from a good crossing position, but it goes all the way behind for a goal kick. It was actually quite a good delivery, but no white shirts could get onto the end of it.

Really good pressure from Bulgaria as they push high up the field and hound the Italian defence. The visitors play it out very calmly, though, and are able to get the ball away from danger in style.

Vital piece of defending from Bodurov as he gets a crucial touch to Zaza's low ball in from the right. It was a very dangerous cross from the Italian forward and Immobile was waiting behind Bodurov to convert, but the Fulham defender diverted it away from danger.

Verratti does well on the edge of the box as he lets the ball run across his body to beat one defender. He declines the opportunity to shoot, instead clipping a cross towards the back post, but a dangerous delivery goes through for a goal kick.

YELLOW CARD! The first card of the night is shown to Bulgaria skipper Dyakov for a cynical foul. No complaints with that one.

Italy take the free kick quickly and lift the ball forward down the right channel for Immobile. Again his movement is good, but he snatches at the effort a bit and sends his volley well over from a tight angle.

ITALY SUB: The visitors make a change as Zaza departs to be replaced by Brazilian-born Eder, who is making his debut here.

Mihaylov has been so uneasy under the high ball tonight. Italy win yet another corner and finally put an inswinging one into the box to test the keeper, who flaps under no pressure and almost turns it into his own net.

SHOT! From the resulting corner the ball drops to Verratti in the box, but he lashes at his effort and skews it wide left. The main pressure is coming from Italy at the moment, but they are struggling to create anything from open play.

Again Mihaylov produces a poor piece of goalkeeping from a cross, rushing to the front post and leaving the majority of his goal exposed. He is not punished on this occasion, but surely he will be again soon if he keeps this up.

Italy have less than half an hour to come up with something here, and anything other than a victory would be classed as a poor result. They are not breaking through Bulgaria as readily as they were in the first half at the moment, and those two Immobile sitters are looking more important with every passing second.

Bulgaria have curbed their own attacking instincts in this second half, not committing as many men forward as they were in the first. Italy have improved defensively, but there is no doubt that the hosts have taken their foot off the counter-attacking pedal a little.

CHANCE! Superb play from Immobile as he wins the ball in a good position before beating one man and firing an effort towards goal. Mihaylov makes the save but parries it into a dangerous area, while Bodurov fails to complete the clearance and sweeps the ball straight to Bertolacci. The Genoa midfielder has time inside the box, but with the angle against him he slices a shot wide of the near post.

Verratti is the next to go for goal from range, but this one is a simple save for the keeper. The pressure is beginning to build on the Bulgarian defence, though, and the hosts are looking increasingly nervy back there.

ITALY SUB: The visitors make another chance as Bertolacci departs to be replaced by Roberto Soriano.

BULGARIA SUBS: Valeri Bojinov makes his return to international football to replace Mitsanski. This is the former Manchester City man's first appearance for his country since 2013, and Italians will know him well after years spent in domestic football there.

Manolev gets away with one here as he completely misses an attempted clearance, which looks like sending Immobile through on goal. However, the assistant raises his flag for offside against the Italian striker.

ITALY SUB: A third and final change for Italy sees Antonelli make way for Manolo Gabbiadini.

Time is really running out for Italy now. This would by no means be a fatal blow for Conte's side given that they would remain in second, still an automatic qualifying place. However, any hopes of winning the group would take a big blow as they would be three points and 10 goals behind Croatia.

CHANCE! Good chance for the visitors to get an equaliser here as Gabbiadini's corner is flicked on at the near post. Chiellini can't get his feet sorted in time to steer a shot on target, though, instead putting it a few yards wide.

YELLOW CARD! Well, Immobile has had a pretty miserable day in front of goal so far, and it goes from bad to worse here as he is booked for diving inside the penalty area. There was contact, but it was manufactured by the striker.

There was controversy over his selection, but very few Italians will worry about Eder's roots now. The attacker collects a pass with his back to goal before spinning his man and curling a beauty into the far corner from 20 yards. It is a fine goal on his debut, and Italy will now be pushing for a winner in the closing stages.

BULGARIA SUB: The hosts make a change in the immediate aftermath of that goal, with Bolton's Simeon Slavchev introduced.

CHANCE! Oh my word, what a chance for Italy to win it! Immobile's flick finds Gabbiadini with time and space inside the box, but the midfielder puts his low effort inches past the post when he simply had to score. Italy have missed two or three absolute sitters tonight.

YELLOW CARD! Soriano is the latest name in the book for a cynical challenge to stop a Bulgaria counter.

BULGARIA SUB: The hosts make their third and final change of the evening as Milanov is replaced by Ventsislav Vasilev.

YELLOW CARD! Darmian goes into the book for a tackle from behind on Slavchev. Bulgaria now have a chance to hoist the ball into the box from the free kick.

Before they can take the set piece, the fourth official indicates a minimum of four minutes added time.

It is Bojinov who takes the free kick, but his curling delivery is a yard or so too far in front of his teammates and runs through for Sirigu to comfortably gather.

Vasilev is flattened by Immobile on the left flank, but the referee allows play to continue and the Italy striker bears down on goal. He feeds a low pass right across the face of goal, but Bodurov makes a vital interception at the back post to turn it behind for a corner.

It ends honours even in Sofia as Bulgaria and Italy share the spoils in this Group H clash. A debut goal for Eder rescued the point for the visitors, who had seen an early own goal from Minev cancelled out by Popov and Micanski to give the hosts the lead at half time. Italy are now two points behind Croatia at the top of Group H, while Bulgaria are four off third-placed Norway.

That is all we have time for this evening! Thank you very much for joining Sports Mole for tonight's Euro 2016 qualifier between Bulgaria and Italy as the Azzurri lose ground at the top of Group H having been held by Bulgaria. I will leave you with our match report, and be sure to stick around for reaction from Sofia. From me, though, it is goodbye for now!