El Salvador head into their fixture against Jamaica on Thursday at the National Stadium of Independence knowing that a win is a must for them to keep their slim hopes of qualifying for World Cup 2022 alive.
At this point, the highest that La Selecta can finish is fourth, which would earn them a berth in the inter-confederation playoffs, while the Reggae Boyz are out of the running for a place in Qatar with seven points after 11 matches played.
Match preview
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The dream of a second ever trip to the finals will have to wait for the Jamaicans, who were officially eliminated from World Cup contention in February when a 62nd-minute strike from Joel Campbell gave Costa Rica a 1-0 win.
Jamaica seemed to be on a return path to contending for a place in the upcoming tournament, after going unbeaten in their final three qualifying fixtures of 2021.
That run unfortunately was not enough for Theodore Whitmore to maintain his position as manager, but his replacement Paul Hall has yet to win a match since taking over the job on an interim basis.
Three second-half debacles versus Mexico, Panama and Los Ticos killed any momentum that this team had accumulated heading into the New Year, as they were in a position to claim points from all three of those encounters, scoring the opening goal versus El Tri and Los Canaleros.
Given how well this team had fared in previous CONCACAF Gold Cup campaigns, along with the calibre of players flourishing in the Premier League and Major League Soccer (MLS), it has to be a massive disappointment for this program to know that they will not be a part of yet another World Cup.
Unlike other nations in this region, the Reggae Boyz have not always been able to have their best players readily available for matches because of COVID restrictions with overseas travellers.
Not only that, but until recently, they also did not have much of a home-field advantage, with the Jamaican government restricting the number of supporters allowed for their games played in the Caribbean.
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The Salvadorans are still in contention to make it to their first World Cup since 1982, but there is no longer any room for error.
With so much at stake for this team, the last thing this group needed was a distraction, but unfortunately, turmoil off the field captured the headlines in El Salvador before their game against Canada, which they lost 2-0.
Prior to that encounter, the players had threatened not to play after being reproached by the Salvadoran Football Federation for talking to the media about having to purchase cold-weather gear out of their own pockets before their January qualifier against the USA in Columbus.
While that threat was quickly recanted, Hugo Perez and his side must do two things on Thursday, which have only been accomplished once before in La Selecta's footballing history, score a goal in Jamaica and defeat the Reggae Boyz on their home field for the first time since 1992.
Although their World Cup destiny is no longer in their hands, trailing Panama by eight points with three matches still to play, there is definite progress being made with this program going forward.
La Selecta made it to the final CONCACAF qualification stage for the first time since the 2010 campaign when they collected eight points, and they have picked up nine points so far this time around.
Since entering the Octagon, the Salvadorans have played passively, maintaining a solid defensive presence all over the field and swarming opposing teams with numerous players behind the ball.
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Team News
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Jamaican striker Michail Antonio has been one of the top contributors all season long for his Premier League side West Ham, as the 31-year-old is tied with Jarrod Bowen for the team lead in goals with eight, and he has also chipped in with seven assists.
Bobby Decordova-Reid has six goals and six assists in league play for Fulham as they appear poised to return to the top-flight of English football, leading the Championship with 77 points, while Philadelphia Union keeper Andre Blake has posted back-to-back clean sheets in MLS.
Brentford defender Ethan Pinnock collected his third international cap in a loss to the Costa Ricans, while Shamar Nicholson, who was not selected in the previous qualification window, is second in goals for this team in the Octagon with two, one fewer than Antonio.
In November, El Salvador captain Alex Roldan rescued a point for his side against the Reggae Boyz, notching the equaliser in the 90th minute, while Nelson Bonilla and Darwin Ceren scored in their last victory, 2-0 over Honduras.
Ceren can move into a tie with former defender Alfredo Pacheco for most all-time appearances with La Selecta, as the Houston Dynamo midfielder currently has 84 international caps, while striker Cristian Gil made his first appearance for the senior side in the last qualifying window, starting alongside Roldan and Jairo Henriquez in a 1-0 defeat to the United States.
Mario Gonzalez has four clean sheets for the Salvadorans in the Octagon, while Eric Calvillo picked up his third cap in their home defeat to Canada.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Lawrence, Mariappa, Lowe, Pinnock; Brown, Williams, Morrison, Flemmings; Gray, Antonio
El Salvador possible starting lineup:
Gonzalez; Tamacas, Zavaleta, Dominguez, Larin; Ceren, Henriquez, Orellana, Roldan, Rivas; Bonilla
We say: Jamaica 2-0 El Salvador
The Reggae Boyz will be determined to finish this qualifying cycle strong, and they have the individual quality to get the job done against the Salvadorans.
We believe that the World Cup dream for El Salvador will end here, as they still have work to do when it comes to being a consistent threat in the attack, plus they are a different team when playing away from home.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 45.35%. A win for El Salvador had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.65%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest El Salvador win was 1-2 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.