The World Cup 2022 journey will end for both Jamaica and Honduras as the two countries face off at the National Stadium of Independence in Kingston on Wednesday.
The Reggae Boyz suffered their worst defeat of the qualifying campaign last weekend, falling 4-0 to Canada, while La H remain winless in the Octagon after dropping a 1-0 decision to Mexico in their previous encounter.
Match preview
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A few days after an impressive display at home to El Salvador, Jamaica's encore performance on Sunday left much to be desired.
Paul Hall's men spent most of the match against the Canadians in their own end of the field trying to hold off the Canucks while rarely creating much of anything themselves, with only one shot on target.
Without the services of some of their most dangerous attacking players, including West Ham striker Michail Antonio and Cory Burke of the Philadelphia Union, they have struggled in the final third, scoring the second-fewest goals (10) in CONCACAF in this qualification phase.
It seems as though those losses in personnel have changed their approach coming into the second half of qualifying, as they have played a lot more passively than we are used to seeing.
Coming into this contest, Jamaica have won three consecutive encounters against the Hondurans, which should boost their confidence as they look to win at home for the first time in this qualification cycle.
It might not feel like much of a victory given the expectations on this team, but if the Reggae Boyz can earn at least a single point on Wednesday, it would mark their best campaign in the final round of qualifying since making it to the World Cup for the first time in 1998.
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The 2022 campaign has gone from bad to worse for La H, who have not won a match and are guaranteed to finish dead last.
Their defeat to El Tri on Sunday summed up how rough this competition has been for them this time out, as a late goal sent them to defeat in Mexico City.
While Hernan Dario Gomez and his team can take pride in how staunch they were defensively against a talented attacking side in Mexico, playing well for stretches has not been good enough.
Even when things seemed to be going their way in qualifying, something unforeseen would kill their momentum and more often than not leave them empty-handed.
If this qualification cycle has taught them anything, it could be that it may be time to retool and bring in a new crop of players for the future, and there will be a lot of time after Wednesday to decide what direction this program needs to go in the years to come.
In football, sometimes one error or lapse in concentration can make all the difference, and La H have had their share of those in this campaign, which has led to their demise.
Things may not be looking so great for the Hondurans right now, but they have fared well in qualifying games against Jamaica, losing only one of their previous three versus the Reggae Boyz.
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Team News
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On Sunday, Tarick Ximines made his first appearance for the Jamaican national team, replacing Vancouver Whitecaps wing-back Javain Brown in the second half, while Nicholas Nelson earned his first international cap, starting alongside Daniel Green and Atapharoy Bygrave in the attack.
Their only victory in this qualification stage came against Honduras last October, as goals from Kemar Roofe and Oniel Fisher gave them a 2-0 win, two players who were not selected for this final window of qualification.
Christopher Pearson, who plays locally in Kingston for Cavalier, is the only player on the current roster who has not featured for the national side, while Damion Lowe has a chance to collect his 40th cap and Aston Villa striker Leon Bailey can earn his 15th appearance.
The last time the Hondurans scored in a match against Jamaica was at the Gold Cup in 2019, when Anthony Lozano and Rubilio Castillo both scored in a 3-2 loss.
Gomez made only two changes to his starting lineup from the team who began their fixture versus Panama, as Alfredo Mejia replaced Juan Delgado, and Angel Tejeda played as the lone striker upfront instead of Romell Quioto.
Junior Lacayo and Gerson Chavez made their international debuts for Honduras on Sunday, coming on as substitutes in place of Tejeda and Bryan Acosta.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Leigh, Lowe, King; Ximines, Walker, Rose, Brown; Bailey, Green, Gray
Honduras possible starting lineup:
Menjivar; Santos, Quaye, Maldonado, Garcia; I. Lopez, Mejia, Arriaga, Acosta, K. Lopez; Lozano
We say: Jamaica 2-0 Honduras
It has been a disappointing campaign for both sides, but Jamaica have shown more eagerness and desire to fight hard and attack, while Los Catrachos appear exhausted and disheartened.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 42.67%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Jamaica would win this match.
