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Japan national football team
World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 12, 2021 at 11.14am UK
 
Australia national football team

Japan
2 - 1
Australia

Tanaka (8'), Behich (85' og.)
Morita (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Hrustic (70')
Behich (63'), Souttar (90+3')

Preview: Japan vs. Australia - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between Japan and Australia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A derby like no other in international football returns this week when Japan welcome rivals Australia to the Saitama Stadium on Tuesday afternoon.

Whilst they may be over 4,000 miles apart, the rivalry was born following a number of fiercely contested fixtures between the two after Australia joined the Asian Football Confederation in 2006.


Match preview

Takefusa Kubo of Japan celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on July 22, 2021© Reuters

Few countries across the globe take World Cup Qualifiers as seriously as Japan and having been a baseball nation for much of their history, the domestic growth of football has lead to a sharp rise in the popularity of their national team.

Japan's love affair with international football can be traced back to the 1998 World Cup held in France, that saw Samurai Blue qualify to the finals for the first time in their history.

Whilst they may have lost each and every group stage game, including a humiliating defeat against fellow first-timers Jamaica, it was the way in which they gained qualification that endeared the island nation to world football's most prestigious competition.

A Masayuki Okano golden goal two minutes from the end of extra time sent Japan on their maiden World Cup voyage and started what has since developed into a run of six consecutive finals, including the ill-fated 1998 edition.

However, their affection to the World Cup has never been more apparent than the four-week period between May and June 2002, where Japan alongside South Korea became the first non-European or South American hosts.

A festival of Asian-inspired football delight provided the globe with one of the most memorable World Cups in recent memory, made all the better by Japan qualifying for the knockouts, where they were beaten in the round of 16 by eventual semi-finalists Turkey.

They may have been outshone by their co-hosts South Korea, who made it to the last four, yet their exploits at the 2002 World Cup remain Japan's joint best-ever performance at a finals, only matched by their results during the 2010 and 2018 tournaments.

In the first World Cup after hosting in 2006, there may have been a newfound pressure placed on the shoulders of an expectant footballing nation, yet they were unable to deliver, beaten to the qualification spots by record champions Brazil and none other than future rivals Australia.

Many supporters of Japan and Australia cite their clash at the 2006 World Cup as the catalyst for a rivalry that has seen many intense matchups since.

Whilst they may have played each other over 10 times before the 2006 World Cup, it was the first meeting between the pair since Australia ditched the Oceania Football Confederation, in favour of the AFC for the second time in their history.

Jumping ship in search of regular competitive matches, Australia returned to the world stage for the first time since 1974 in emphatic fashion, with their 3-1 victory over Japan in the group stage crucial to them finishing as runners-up.

Australia celebrate after making it through to the knockout stages at the 2006 World Cup© Reuters

Immediately knocked out by eventual winners Italy in the round of 16, Australia may have failed to leave a lasting impression on the 2006 World Cup knockout stages, yet they did travel home from Germany with a footballing rivalry bigger than anything they had tasted before.

The pair continued to meet in some of the biggest international clashes Asia has ever seen, including a year later when Japan avenged their World Cup defeat in the quarter-final of the Asian Cup, seeing off Australia on penalties.

A string of qualification ties followed, with both sides enjoying their own spells of superiority and the latest edition in one of international football's more bizarre derbies could go a long way to deciding who will be competing in the 2022 World Cup next winter.

Australia look to be in an unassailable position at the top of Group B, whilst fellow World Cup regulars Japan are languishing in third, having won one of their opening three matches in the third round of Asian qualifying.

Surprising losers to Oman in the opening match of round three, Japan bounced back with a slender 1-0 victory over China, before once again falling short, this time against Saudi Arabia in the first match of this current international break.

Hajime Moriyasu's side now face a desperate challenge to secure even a playoff spot in Group B, with the likes of Oman and China level on points with the Samurai Blue, making Tuesday's fixture against Australia close to a must-win.

Japan may be able to take a crumb of comfort from the fact they are unbeaten in seven matches against the Socceroos, whose last victory against them came during a 2-1 triumph at the MCG all the way back in 2009.

Winless in over a decade against their opponents, Australia's hopes of making it 12 points from 12 look slim when comparing head-to-head records, not least because they have never won a match on Japanese soil in their history.

Nine trips to the East Asian nation have all ended without a victory for Australia, who will be confident this is the time to triumph, whilst inflicting more World Cup Qualifying pain on their pan-Asian-Oceanic rivals in the process.

Japan World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Japan form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • W

Australia World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Marco Tilio of Australia celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on July 22, 2021© Reuters

Japan's poor performances in qualifying have not been down to a lack of experience in the squad, with a whopping six current players having registered over 50 caps for the Samurai Blue.

One of those is of course captain Maya Yoshida, who has won 110 caps for Japan since being handed his debut in 2010 and his past knowledge of crucial qualification ties could prove invaluable for an under-pressure defence.

Yoshida is part of a backline that has kept one clean sheet in their last three World Cup Qualifying fixtures and will be joined in defence by fellow veteran Yuto Nagatomo, who holds the record for the second-highest number of caps for Japan.

With 127 appearances to his name, retirement from the international game is likely to be around the corner for Nagatomo and a final World Cup appearance would be the perfect parting gift for the former Inter Milan left-back.

In terms of attacking threat, Japan could turn to Yuya Osako, who led the line for Japan in the Saudi Arabia defeat, yet he has been given the unenviable task of replacing Shinji Okazaki.

However, without question Japan's standout talent at the moment is Celtic forward Kyogo Furuhashi, who is the latest in a long line of starlets to break into the Samurai Blue side.

Furuhashi could see himself line up against fellow Celtic forward Tom Rogic, with the attacking midfielder deployed behind Adam Taggart in Australia's recent 3-1 win over Oman.

Neither of those Socceroos players found the net, with the goals coming from both Australian wingers in Martin Boyle and Awer Mabil, who will likely marshal the flanks once more.

Mitchell Duke came off the bench to add a third for Australia, and the man who plays his football in Japan for Fagiano Okayama could challenge for a starting berth on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, Aaron Mooy could return to the starting 11, whilst Trent Sainsbury and Harry Souttar will partner each other in the heart of the Australian defence.

Japan possible starting lineup:
Gonda; Sakai, Yoshida, Tomiyasu, Nagatomo; Endo, Shibasaki; Asano, Furuhashi, Takumi; Osako

Australia possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Grant, Sainsbury, Souttar, Behich; Irvine, Hrustic; Boyle, Rogic, Mabil; Taggart


SM words green background

We say: Japan 1-2 Australia

Unquestionably this is a much more important fixture for Japan than it is Australia, but do not expect any niceties from the Group B leaders, in what is shaping up to be another classic encounter between the pair.

Japan have had the edge over Australia in recent years, but the tide may just be changing in Asian football and it would be a shock to see the Socceroos sail away from the island nation with all three points.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Japan had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Japan win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Japan vs Australia

Japan
32.0%
Draw
11.3%
Australia
56.7%
194
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Adam Taggart of the Jets celebrates a goal during the round 27 A-League match between the Newcastle Jets and Adelaide United at Hunter Stadium on April 11, 2014
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