In a battle near the bottom of the Campeonato Brasileiro, 17th-placed Juventude host a Ceara side who sit just three points and three places above them in the Serie A standings.
The imperiled pair convene at Estadio Alfredo Jaconi on Saturday, with both having endured five-match winless runs ahead of the game.
Match preview
© Reuters
Not only did a 3-2 loss at Gremio see Juventude suffer a third defeat in five league fixtures last time out, but the club from Caixas do Sul also allowed one of the few teams below them in the table to make up ground - and drag them into the relegation zone.
Marquinhos Santos saw his side go three goals down before the hour mark in Porto Alegre, before recovering to make the scoreline respectable in the closing stages.
Santos was subsequently dismissed by Juventude and took over fellow top-tier club America Mineiro just hours later, having led Juve to just one victory in their previous 11 Serie A fixtures.
Now in a state of flux, as Jair Ventura steps into the hotseat, the squad he has inherited return to home soil, where all but one of their six wins this season have come.
The 2019-20 Serie B champions are within touching distance of their latest opponents in the table, though, and three points would help them onto an equal tally of 31.
© Reuters
Sitting precariously in 14th place in the Brasileiro, following an awful spell in which they have picked up just three points from a possible 15, Ceara have much work to do during the closing rounds in order to save their season.
In fact, one win in their last 11 matches has seen them tumble down the tightly-packed standings and adrift of a potential Copa Sudamericana place.
The Fortaleza club are now at serious risk of relegation, after their latest defeat left them with just a point from two fixtures last week - and only three points above Juventude in the drop zone.
However, it could have been even worse for coach Tiago Nunes and company, as they were two goals behind heading into stoppage time last Sunday, but salvaged a draw against high-fliers Bragantino. Ceara failed to build on that momentum, though, as they were beaten 2-1 by Palmeiras on Wednesday.
Therefore, a repeat of their last encounter with Juve - a 2-0 success at Castelao in July - would come as a timely full stop on a woeful couple of months for the Alvinegro.
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Jair Ventura could make changes for his first game in charge of Juventude, in order to stamp his authority on an ailing side and halt their winless run.
Both Jadson and Dawhan should be involved in midfield, but Nicolas Castillo (back) and Marcelo Carne (knee) are still out of action.
Ricardo Bueno (muscular) is also a doubt, while Elton was previously ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury.
Ceara, meanwhile, expect to travel without both Wendson and Gabriel Dias - both sidelined due to injury - while long-term absentee Buiu (knee) is once again unavailable.
Thiago Nunes may opt to switch things up in attack, so midweek goalscorer Cleber is in line to replace Gabriel as the lone centre-forward in a probable 4-2-3-1 formation.
Juventude possible starting lineup:
Friedrich; Michel, Mendes, Forster, Santos; Castilho, Ricardinho, Matheus; Wagner, Bueno, Paulinho
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Igor, Messias, Lacerda, Pacheco; Marlon, Sobral; Erick, Vinicius, Kelvyn; Cleber
We say: Juventude 1-1 Ceara
While Ceara have proved a tough nut to crack on home soil, they have not travelled so well this term, and will be restricted to just a point by Juventude this weekend.
The 'new manager effect' should help Juve pick up the pace, but a lack of goalscoring prowess on either side means the game could end up in a nervy score draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventude win with a probability of 36.94%. A win for Ceara had a probability of 33.83% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventude win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.54%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Ceara win was 0-1 (11.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.