Top of Group H with maximum points so far, Juventus seek to seal a double over Zenit St Petersburg in the Champions League on Tuesday.
Though already closing in on the last 16, the Bianconeri have been struggling domestically, while Zenit sit top of the Russian Premier League but trail behind in the group following defeat to this week's hosts in Russia.
Match preview
© Reuters
Though, following events at the weekend, Juventus find themselves in the unfamiliar territory of mid-table in Serie A - following a 2-1 reverse at Hellas Verona - the Turin giants have been at their resilient best in Europe so far.
Having won all three of their Group H fixtures without conceding a goal, the Old Lady stands ready to reach the knockout stage with a win on home soil against opponents they bettered just a fortnight ago.
A late Dejan Kulusevski strike broke the resistance of Zenit last time the teams met, as he headed home Mattia De Sciglio's cross with four minutes remaining of a close-fought contest in Russia's cultural capital.
That late intervention by the Swedish attacker kept Juve three points ahead of defending champions Chelsea in the standings, with Zenit stuck on three points and outsiders Malmo having failed to post either a goal or a point.
For all their domestic woes over the past year, the Bianconeri can boast a record of 13 wins from their last 14 Champions League group games ahead of Tuesday's return, and precedent stands in their favour too.
Juventus have never lost a continental clash with Russian opposition in their entire history - coming out on top eight times and drawing once - and have lost only five of their 47 European matches at the Allianz Stadium. However, four of those defeats have come in their last 15 home outings, reflecting the decline in standards at a club which has bowed out at the first knockout round in each of the last two campaigns.
Max Allegri's return to Turin has not gone seamlessly either, as defeat on Saturday followed a last-gasp midweek loss to Sassuolo, so Juve will take to the field hoping to avoid the ignominy of three successive defeats.
© Reuters
Zenit have certainly shown little sign of a hangover from their late loss on the third matchday, as the reigning Russian champions have comfortably won both league games since losing to Juventus: beating Dinamo Moscow 4-1 on Friday, as Claudinho found the net for a second successive match, having previously running out 7-1 winners at home to Spartak.
That remarkable scoreline represents their biggest margin of victory over the Moscow side in league history, and leaves the Zenitchiki top of the table by five points, as they seek a fourth consecutive domestic title.
Back-to-back successes have lightened the mood in Sergei Semak's camp, as they had previously lost three straight games in all competitions, but carrying such form onto the Champions League stage often proves a step too far for the St Petersburg side.
Following the defeat to Juve last time out, Zenit have now lost eight of their last 10 matches in Europe's elite club competition - winning just one - and finished fourth in their group in each of the last two seasons.
While Malmo's ineptitude may save them from that fate for a third consecutive campaign, any hopes of making the last 16 rather than receiving a consolatory Europa League pass will rely heavily on events this Tuesday, against an off-colour Juventus side under pressure to produce.
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Max Allegri may be set to make changes to his starting XI, given a dreadful week in Serie A, and hopes to have Federico Chiesa back from a muscular injury which kept him out at the weekend.
The participation of Aaron Ramsey (also muscular) and Moise Kean (thigh) remains in doubt, but Juventus have only Mattia De Sciglio as a confirmed absentee, with a thigh problem that will keep him out until after the international break.
As ever, Allegri must choose two from three strong contenders at centre-back, one of whom is the age-defying Giorgio Chiellini, who featured last time Juve hosted Zenit in the Champions League, back in 2008, when Alessandro Del Piero scored the only goal for the Bianconeri.
Another candidate is Leonardo Bonucci, who made his 100th appearance in UEFA club competition during the game in St Petersburg, and both Italy internationals are on the 30-man shortlist for this year's Ballon d'Or. Matthijs de Ligt has the unenviable task of displacing one of the pair that started on Saturday.
Zenit's hopes have been hampered by the loss of left-back Douglas Santos, who was replaced early on against Spartak with a muscle strain and subsequently missed the win against Dinamo. Meanwhile, Magomed Ozdoev is yet to return from a knee ligament injury sustained in the summer.
The visitors' Artem Dzyuba became the Russian league's all-time top scorer on 144 goals on Friday, three minutes after his introduction as a substitute.
Dzyuba had failed to find the net in Zenit's first seven league games this term, but has now scored in six successive matches and has a strong claim to start in Turin. Sardar Azmoun, though, is favourite to lead the line in Sergei Semak's preferred 4-3-2-1 formation.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Danilo, Bonucci, De Ligt, Sandro; McKennie, Bentancur, Locatelli, Chiesa; Morata, Dybala
Zenit St Petersburg possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Lovren, Chistyakov, Rakitskyi; Sutormin, Barrios, Wendel, Karavaev; Malcom, Azmoun, Claudinho
We say: Juventus 1-0 Zenit St Petersburg
Juventus have made a habit of grinding out narrow wins in the Champions League this term, and they can continue to do so at the Allianz Stadium, despite their faltering Serie A status.
While Zenit have scored freely in the past week, they will find less space than their domestic opponents afford them, and their desperation to claim the points could see them picked off by the Bianconeri once again.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 61.48%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 14.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.4%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Zenit St Petersburg win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Juventus would win this match.
