In the third of a potential four encounters between the Italian heavyweights this season, Juventus and Inter Milan clash in Serie A's Sunday evening kickoff.
The eyes of the world will be on the latest Derby d'Italia, as following Inter's Supercoppa Italiana success the last time the clubs convened, Juve have closed a once yawning gap between them to a single point - and victory could even haul the Turin giants back into the Scudetto race.
Match preview
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This week's high-stakes Derby d'Italia not only brings together the two most successful clubs in Calcio, but could ultimately decide the destiny of both teams this season.
Having been crowned champions for nine years running, Juventus were finally usurped last term by their Nerazzuro counterparts, and the familiar foes are now involved in the current title race - albeit as outsiders, behind Milan and Napoli.
Following a 2-0 win over rock-bottom Salernitana just before the international break, Juve sit fourth in the standings, and though Inter still retain a game in hand, they have worked their way into a situation which would see them leapfrog their rivals with a win at the Allianz Stadium.
The clubs' first meeting of the 2021-22 campaign came back in October, when the points were shared in a 1-1 draw - Paulo Dybala scoring a late equaliser from the spot after a controversial late penalty call - but Inter enjoyed their revenge at the start of the year.
On that occasion, the Supercoppa Italiana went the way of the Nerazzurri, as Alexis Sanchez snatched a stoppage-time winner to deny Max Allegri's men the chance of a penalty shootout.
Allegri has since imposed some authority on an ailing side, and his rejuvenated outfit were surprised to slump out of the Champions League at the last-16 stage once again, when they lost 3-0 at home to Villarreal last month.
Nonetheless, they will approach this latest high-profile fixture having established the longest current unbeaten run in Serie A: 16 games, of which they have won 11. Indeed, since the end of November, the Bianconeri are one of only two sides in the top five European Leagues to remain undefeated, along with La Liga title contenders Sevilla.
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Having ended Juve's domestic hegemony by claiming the Scudetto last spring under former coach Antonio Conte - recently, if somewhat belatedly, named Serie A's Coach of the Year - Simone Inzaghi's Inter side started out in similar fashion during the first half of the season.
The Milanese giants enjoyed a winning streak of eight games before lifting the Supercoppa in early January, at a time when they enjoyed an 11-point lead over Juventus and topped the table. Since then, though, little has gone to plan.
In addition to a spirited but ultimately unsuccessful attempt to make it past Liverpool in the Champions League, Inter have picked up only 11 points from their last nine Serie A matches - 10 fewer than their hosts on Sunday.
With goals drying up, largely due to a crisis of confidence for Lautaro Martinez, the Nerazzurri have drawn each of their last four away fixtures in the top flight: a pair of goalless stalemates and two 1-1 draws.
They were also held 1-1 by Fiorentina at San Siro last time out; failing to follow up a Denzel Dumfries equaliser with a winner which would have secured just a second Serie A success in seven attempts.
Ahead of their latest bid to halt such a decline, Inter have won only one of their last 15 away matches against Juventus in the league - and none since 2012. In that time, Juve have emerged victorious 10 times, so precedent as well as form will be up against them in Turin.
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Team News
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Max Allegri has no new injury concerns, and a once-packed treatment table has begun to clear; leaving only long-term absentees Federico Chiesa, Weston McKennie and Kaio Jorge - plus the suspended Luca Pellegrini - definitely sidelined on Sunday. However, Leonardo Bonucci's participation remains in doubt.
The Juventus coach must deliberate over who will partner Dusan Vlahovic up front, as rumoured Inter transfer target Paulo Dybala vies with Alvaro Morata for a start. The former was recently overlooked by Argentina but scored after starting against Salernitana, while the latter netted a brace for Spain versus Iceland.
Having returned from Colombia duty, and seen hopes of another World Cup appearance brought to an end, Juan Cuadrado should start on the right flank for the home side. Inter are the winger's favourite target in Serie A, and he has previously scored five goals against them - all in home matches, including a double in Juve's 3-2 win last May.
Meanwhile, in midfield, Denis Zakaria's return after a month-long layoff due to injury is set to cost Arthur his place.
Inter have recently been disrupted by calf injuries suffered by Stefan de Vrij and Marcelo Brozovic against Liverpool last month, and while the Dutch defender will again be covered by Danilo D'Ambrosio in the back three, Simone Inzaghi should have his Croatian playmaker passed fit in time to feature.
Short of form in recent weeks, Lautaro Martinez will start up front after overcoming COVID-19 infection, being joined by Edin Dzeko in the front two; with Joaquin Correa, Alexis Sanchez and Felipe Caicedo offering a trio of South American alternatives on the bench.
Incidentally, wing-back Ivan Perisic will become the third Croatian player to reach 200 Serie A appearances since the turn of the century, following in the footsteps of Brozovic and Milan Badelj - however, he has faced Juventus 10 times before in the league, winning only once.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Danilo, De Ligt, Chiellini, De Sciglio; Cuadrado, Zakaria, Locatelli, Rabiot; Morata, Vlahovic
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; D'Ambrosio, Skriniar, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Brozovic, Calhanoglu, Perisic; Martinez, Dzeko
We say: Juventus 1-0 Inter Milan
No side has kept more clean sheets than Juventus in Serie A this season (13, as many as Napoli), while conceding just over three shots on target per game.
That record is undoubtedly due to the input of Allegri since his reappointment, and such discipline can help them keep Inter at bay and finally move above them in the table - with Vlahovic and Cuadrado primed to strike on the counter.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventus win with a probability of 37.19%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 36.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventus win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.24%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 0-1 (9.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.
