Kazakhstan and Ukraine will face off in a repeat of their most recent World Cup 2022 qualifier on Wednesday at the Astana Arena.
In the last Group D match back in March, Kazakhstan earned an unlikely point and will be looking to repeat that feat on home turf.
Match preview
© Reuters
The Kazakh team are arguably in the midst of their most successful spell since moving from the AFC to UEFA in 2002.
Ten points during their qualification campaign for Euro 2020 was the country's best performance to date in any UEFA competition and included a shock 3-0 victory over Scotland.
That run, whilst ultimately unsuccessful, has perhaps given Talgat Baysufinov's men an increased sense of self-belief, as their good form has continued.
Do not let their current position at the bottom of Group D fool you - one point from their opening two fixtures is an undeniable success when you consider that those two games were at home to world champions France and then away at Ukraine.
The draw with Ukraine was the first time in Kazakhstan's history that they had come away from that encounter with anything other than a loss, as Serikzhan Muzhikov's 59th-minute equaliser proved enough for a point, despite Ukraine's 29 attempts at goal.
The Hawks will now see if they can match - or even better - that result on home soil. If so, an unlikely bid for the top two could even be a possibility.
© Reuters
Ukraine's surprise draw with Kazakhstan was their third stalemate from three games in their qualification campaign.
Things started well with an impressive point away against the world champions, but the next draw - 1-1 at home to Finland after an 89th-minute equalising penalty for the visitors - was fairly disappointing and the same result against Kazakhstan was seen as something of an embarrassment.
The Blue and Yellows will have an immediate chance at revenge, with the reverse fixture strangely coming immediately after - albeit five months later.
If they are to get their revenge, Andriy Shevchenko will not be there to experience it, having resigned from his position as manager after the country's Euro 2020 exit at the hands of England.
They remain with caretaker manager Oleksandr Petrakov for now, who will be keen to stake his claim for the post on a permanent basis. A win here would be a good start.
- L
- D
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- L
Team News
Kazakhstan forward Artur Shushenachev will be hoping to make his international debut, after an injury forced him to withdraw from the squad for the last qualifiers.
Baysufinov will also now have CSKA Moscow midfielder Baktiyar Zaynutdinov, who has scored seven times in 16 international appearances - the 23-year-old also having missed the earlier games with a knee injury.
Ukraine's interim manager has near enough a full quota of players to choose from, although he lost Artem Dovayk to a rib injury sustained at his club last week.
Real Madrid goalkeeper Andriy Lunin is also unavailable after a positive COVID-19 test and was replaced in the squad by Dynamo Kiev's Denys Boyko.
Kazakhstan possible starting lineup:
Pokatilov; Bystrov, Yerlanov, Malyi, Alip, Valiullin; Muzhikov, Zaynutdinov, Nurgaliyev; Shushenachev, Aymbetov
Ukraine possible starting lineup:
Pyatov; Zabarnyi, Kryvtsov, Matviyenko; Karavaev, Shaparenko, Zinchenko, Sydorchuk; Malinovskiy; Yarmolenko, Yaremchuk
We say: Kazakhstan 0-2 Ukraine
Despite Kazakhstan's heroics last time, Ukraine will surely come away with three points on this occasion. They have some players back and should be high on confidence after their best-ever run at a European Championship.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 44.47%. A draw had a probability of 29% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 26.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.16%) and 1-2 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.1%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.