KV Oostende welcome Genk to the Diaz Arena on Boxing Day for a mid-table clash during matchweek 21 of the Belgian Pro League.
The hosts will be a little disappointed after their strong performance last campaign, but it is the 2018-19 champions who are really underperforming, sitting four points off the top eight.
Match preview
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After their unexpected run to fifth under Alexander Blessin last campaign, Oostende have returned to mid-table mediocrity this season and sit 11th in the table.
They have generally been an all-or-nothing team, drawing just two of their 20 league games, and the nothings have often been particularly damaging.
Losses such as their 7-1 thrashing at the hands of surprise league leaders Union SG have left them with the third-worst goal difference in the league.
Last time out they were able to end a run of two back-to-back losses with a comfortable 2-0 win over bottom-of-the-table Beerschot.
Two goals in as many minutes from Thierry Ambroise and Makhtar Gueye late in the first half put De Kustboys in control, with both sides then reduced to 10 men in the final 20 minutes.
Genk's poor performance this season led to manager John van den Brom being dismissed at the start of December, but the appointment of Bernd Storck did not lead to the 'new manager bounce' that the owners would have hoped for.
A 1-0 loss to Rapid Vienna saw the Blauw-Wit finish bottom of their Europa League group and was followed by a defeat by the same scoreline at Gent three days later.
The last two matches have shown signs of recovery, however, with a 4-2 win over a strong Charleroi side and a draw with third-placed Royal Antwerp.
Storck will have been disappointed to have seen Paul Onuachu's goal cancelled out by a late equaliser, and will hope for a win on Sunday.
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Team News
Oostende have a large number of absences to deal with, particularly in defence where they are without Steven Fortes and Alfons Amade through suspension, as well as Anton Tanghe and Manuel Osifo through injury.
Further up the pitch, Marko Kvasina and Indy Boonen are also likely to miss out, so top scorer Gueye will once again be relied upon to provide the firepower and add to his 11 goals.
Genk's Onuachu can boast a slightly better tally, having hit the back of the net 12 times this campaign, but the Nigerian will not be increasing it any time soon as a muscle injury is set to keep him out until the New Year.
The only other two absences are down to COVID-19, with Gerardo Arteaga and Jhon Lucumi missing from the backline.
KV Oostende possible starting lineup:
Hubert; Jakel, D'Haese, Medley; Wylon, Santos, Patoulidis, Batzner, Matam; Gueye, Ambroise
Genk possible starting lineup:
Vandevoordt; Munoz, Sadick, McKenzie, Eiting; Hrosovsky, Heynen, Thorstvedt; Ito, Ugbo, Bongonda
We say: KV Oostende 1-1 Genk
The hosts have conceded nearly 2 goals on average this season per game and the most goals by a side outside the bottom three. Genk have been pretty efficient in front of goal but without Onuachu may struggle a little more. All thing considered, we are backing a score draw on this occasion.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 70.77%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for KV Oostende had a probability of 12.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.99%) and 1-3 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.17%), while for a KV Oostende win it was 2-1 (3.7%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.
