As their pursuit of a European place continues, Lazio return from the international break to host in-form Sassuolo on Saturday evening.
The teams meet at Stadio Olimpico separated by six points and two spots in the standings, with the seventh-placed hosts hoping to not only extend that advantage with a win, but also stay on the coat-tails of arch-rivals Roma.
Match preview
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After a devastating defeat in the Derby della Capitale just before Serie A paused for international football, Lazio will now look to bounce back and remain in the race for a top-six finish in May.
They visibly crumbled under the pressure after Tammy Abraham turned home an opening goal before a minute had been played, and a three-goal deficit at half time seemingly stunned them into submission.
A fortnight after Roma brushed them aside with unexpected ease, then, the Biancocelesti are back in action; sitting two points adrift of both their capital city rivals and fifth-placed Atalanta.
Their latest loss at the Olimpico - albeit as the nominal 'away' team - may have left behind the bitterest taste, but Maurizio Sarri's men have been following a general downward trajectory on Roman soil of late.
Lazio have posted just two league wins at home since the start of 2022, which runs counter to a previously formidable record under both Sarri and his predecessor, current Inter boss Simone Inzaghi.
Furthermore, following four wins from their first five home Serie A matches against this week's opponents, the Aquile have won only one of their last three encounters with Sassuolo in Rome.
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Despite decades of inferiority to their capital counterparts, Sassuolo have won three of their last four league games against Lazio - including the most recent two - following December's 2-1 victory at the Mapei Stadium.
Alessio Dionisi's side also return to Serie A action as one of the most in-form sides in the Italian top flight, with an unbeaten run of six games accruing ahead of the international break.
Racking up 16 goals in their last six outings, the Neroverdi's fluent attacking unit have been in full flight over recent weeks, and they are one of only three sides - the others being Real Madrid and Liverpool - to feature two players on at least 13 goals throughout the top five European leagues.
Though they have only kept a single clean sheet during that time, the potency of Italian internationals Gianluca Scamacca and captain Domenico Berardi has helped Sassuolo to add a further 14 points to their total - causing sides above them in the table to glance nervously over their shoulders.
Victory at the Olimpico would bring the Emilian outfit within three points of Lazio, and as they have gone unbeaten in each of their last 10 Serie A fixtures against opponents placed higher in the standings - winning six and drawing four - they clearly do not suffer from impostor syndrome on the grandest stages.
Having already beaten Milan, Inter and Juventus this season, Sassuolo also took seven points from their last three away games before the break, so a trip to the Eternal City should hold no fears this weekend.
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Team News
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While experienced winger Pedro is ruled out for Lazio due to a one-game suspension, Mattia Zaccagni returns from a ban served during the derby, and will take the former Barcelona man's place in the hosts' front three.
Veteran defender Stefan Radu is expected to be out for a while longer with a foot injury, so Elseid Hysaj should continue at left-back - though Adam Marusic could instead switch across from the right; allowing Manuel Lazzari to regain his place in the starting XI.
Meanwhile, Sassuolo may face travelling without their talismanic skipper Domenico Berardi, who has been training individually since his return from an unsuccessful attempt at World Cup qualification with the Azzurri.
Both Jeremy Toljan and Filip Djuricic remain unavailable, but in-demand Gianluca Scamacca is set to start after only featuring as a substitute last time out.
The 6ft 4in striker has netted 13 goals so far this term; scoring in each of his last three Serie A matches. Following a brace against Turkey on Tuesday, international colleague Giacomo Raspadori should provide his chief support in attack.
Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Lazzari, Acerbi, Felipe, Marusic; Alberto, Leiva, Milinkovic-Savic; Zaccagni, Immobile, Anderson
Sassuolo possible starting lineup:
Consigli; Kyriakopoulos, Ferrari, Ayhan, Muldur; Frattesi, Lopez; Berardi, Raspadori, Traore; Scamacca
We say: Lazio 2-2 Sassuolo
Meetings between these clubs rarely pass without plenty of penalty-box incident, and though Lazio have tightened up in recent times, they remain susceptible to being hit on the break.
An average of 3.4 goals during their previous 17 encounters with Sassuolo suggests a score draw may be the likeliest outcome on Saturday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.27%. A win for Sassuolo had a probability of 21.07% and a draw had a probability of 20.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.11%) and 1-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Sassuolo win was 1-2 (5.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lazio in this match.
