LDU Quito and Flamengo jostle for the top spot in Group G in the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday, as they both look to build on positive starts to the continental campaign.
The hosts started with a 2-2 draw against Union La Calera in the opening game, before they secured a comfortable 3-1 victory over Velez Sarsfield, while the visitors come into this game having won their first two group matches.
Match preview
LDU Quito kicked off their Copa Libertadores campaign with a 2-2 draw away against Union La Calera.
The hosts twice took the lead through an Andres Vilches brace, but a Billy Arce brace levelled the game for Pablo Repetto's side, as he netted the equaliser in the 83rd minute to secure a point for the Equadorian outfit.
They then followed that up with an impressive 3-1 win at home to Argentinian side Velez Sarsfield last Tuesday.
Cristian Martinez Borja opened the scoring for the hosts, but Pablo Galmades netted the equaliser for the Argentinian outfit before Borja scored his second and Matias Zunino added a third to seal a crucial victory.
That saw them move straight into the top two of their group, while a win on Wednesday would see them sit in pole position to qualify out of the group, leapfrogging Flamengo in the process.
Their opponents will look to all but confirm their qualification with a third consecutive win to start the group stage, having already toppled Velez Sarsfield and Union La Calera.
Flamengo started their campaign with a trip to Velez Sarsfield, and came away with a narrow 3-2 victory.
Rogerio Ceni's side went behind on two separate occasions due to a Lucas Janson brace, but goals from Willian Arao and Gabriel Barbosa levelled the game before Giorgian de Arrascaeta netted the winner in the 80th minute to take all three points.
El Rubro-Negro then followed that up with a dominant 4-1 victory at home to Union La Calera, as Barbosa netted a brace alongside goals from de Arrascaeta and Pedro to seal another crucial victory.
As a result, Flamengo now sit firmly in the lead in the race to qualify for the final 16, with a win on Wednesday all but confirming their place in the knockout stage.
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Team News
Billy Arce and Cristian Martinez Borja will lead an exciting attacking line for LDU Quito, having each netted a brace in one of the two opening group games.
Repetto is expected to stick with his familiar back four of Pedro Perlaza, Franklin Guerra, Moises Corozo and Christian Cruz.
Gabriel Barbosa will lead the line for Flamengo, having netted three goals in their opening two Copa Libertadores games.
He will be supported by the attacking threat of midfielder Giorgian de Arrascaeta, who has also found the net in both of their first two matches.
At the other end of the pitch, Willian Arao is expected to play alongside Bruno Viana at the heart of a back four.
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Perlaza, Guerra, Corrozo, Cruz; Piovi, Alcivar; Zunino, Arce, Munoz; Borja
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Alves; Isla, Arao, Viana, Luis; Diego, Gerson; Ribeiro, De Arrascaeta; Barbosa, Henrique
We say: LDU Quito 1-2 Flamengo
While both sides have had impressive starts to the group stage, we see Flamengo outclassing the hosts on Wednesday.
The Brazilian side have shown an impressive combination of attacking and defensive quality, and we see them recording a third consecutive victory.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for LDU Quito had a probability of 34.96% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.05%) and 0-2 (5.39%). The likeliest LDU Quito win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
