Two of Serie A's bottom three face off at Stadio Via del Mare on Wednesday evening, with Lecce and Brescia looking to keep alive their survival hopes.
The visitors picked up a big win over bottom side SPAL on Sunday but remain five points behind Lecce, who are themselves four points adrift of safety with four games to go.
Match preview
Not only did Brescia revive their survival hopes with their 2-1 win at SPAL, they also relegated the division's bottom-placed side in the process.
Two relegation spots remain up for grabs, with Lecce and Brescia the strong favourites to join SPAL in dropping down a division.
Brescia trailed with around 20 minutes to go in Sunday's match but fought back to snatch all three points - Jaromir Zmrhal netting both goals, including a 93rd-minute winner.
That was a second win in five matches for the Biancazzurri and, realistically speaking, they will now need to win all four of their remaining games to stay up.
Lecce will be hopeful of killing off their opponents' slim hopes altogether on Wednesday as they chase what would be just a second win in 11 outings.
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That is the only result that will do for Fabio Liverani's men as they are four points adrift with just 12 points to play for, this being the easiest of those remaining games.
Lecce have lost four of their last five home games, most recently going down 3-1 to Fiorentina, while Brescia are without a win in nine away games in 2020, losing seven of those.
No team in the division has conceded more goals this term than Lecce (76), although Brescia are not far behind on 71.
The struggling sides are also among the division's lowest scorers, managing just 74 between them this term - 20 fewer than Atalanta BC have managed alone.
Three of those Brescia goals came in a 3-0 win over Lecce in the reverse fixture, though they have lost 4-1 and 2-1 on their last two trips to Stadio Via del Mare.
Lecce's Serie A form: LLWDLL
Brescia's Serie A form: LWLLLW
Team News
Jacopo Petriccione is suspended for Wednesday's crunch clash, opening the door for Zan Majer to return in midfield.
Lecce have a handful of players ruled out through injury, including the likes of Gianluca Lapadula and Filippo Falco.
Marco Mancosu scored in the 2-1 loss to Genoa last time out and should start this one, with Khouma Babacar leading the line.
Brescia also have a player missing through suspension after Nikolas Spalek picked up another yellow card at the weekend.
Zmrhal's double against SPAL were his first goals of the season and he will retain his place out on the right, on the opposite side to Birkir Bjarnason.
Elsewhere, Enrico Alfonso and Jesse Joronen will play no part due to injury.
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Rispoli, Lucioni, Paz, Donati; Majer, Tachtsidis, Barak; Saponara, Mancosu; Babacar
Brescia possible starting lineup:
Andrenacci; Sabelli, Chancellor, Papaetti, Mateju; Zmrhal, Dessena, Tonali, Bjarnason; Torregrossa, Donnarumma
We say: Lecce 2-1 Brescia
Lecce have a more realistic chance than Brescia of staying up and will be confident of picking up a victory here against their travel-sick opponents. Defeat could be enough to send the visitors down and we are expecting that to be the case.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 57.26%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Brescia had a probability of 21.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Brescia win it was 1-2 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lecce would win this match.
