Two teams who epitomise inconsistency prepare to do battle in the Premier League on Saturday evening as Leeds United welcome Aston Villa to Elland Road.
The Whites eased to a 3-0 win over Southampton last time out, while an out-of-sorts Villa succumbed to a 2-1 defeat to Leicester City.
Match preview
© Reuters
A touching tribute to Kalvin Phillips's late grandmother capped off a perfect night for Leeds against Southampton, who were no match for Marcelo Bielsa's rampant attacking forces on Tuesday evening at Elland Road.
The game exploded into life in the second 45 after a relatively even first half, and it was the increasingly unpredictable Leeds who marched to an impressive win thanks to goals from Patrick Bamford, Stuart Dallas and the ever-improving Raphinha.
Defeats to Everton, Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers since the start of February had seen Leeds slip back into the bottom half of the Premier League table, but a second home win on the bounce means that Bielsa's men are back up to 10th after 25 matches, but the Elland Road faithful are aware of just how quickly their side's fortunes can change.
The Whites would leapfrog their weekend opponents Villa and Tottenham Hotspur into eighth with a third consecutive triumph on home soil this week, and recent history suggests that there will be a winner and a loser in this match, as Leeds have now gone 16 top-flight games without drawing since their goalless stalemate with Arsenal on November 22.
However, Leeds have not enjoyed their best results on a Saturday - with only two wins from eight games played on that day this season - and the hosts' medical room is filling up before they welcome a Villa side who were embroiled in their own injury controversy recently.
© Reuters
Premier League players taking part in fantasy football is nothing new, but Villa have reportedly proceeded to ban their squad from playing the game after news of Jack Grealish's injury was leaked through his teammates transferring him out of their sides.
Villa's off-the-pitch matters did not help their endeavours on the field whatsoever, as Dean Smith's beleaguered team succumbed to two first-half strikes from James Maddison and Harvey Barnes against Leicester, with Bertrand Traore's 48th-minute strike proving nothing more than a consolation.
The European dream is at risk of fading away for eighth-placed Villa, who have won just one of their last four top-flight matches and find themselves four points adrift of sixth-placed Liverpool, although they do have two games in hand over most of the teams above them.
With Smith's men still in with a realistic shout of a Europa League place, a win at Elland Road is of paramount importance this weekend, although they have only taken the spoils in three of their last 10 Premier League outings, including one from their last six away from home.
Furthermore, Leeds eased to a 3-0 victory at Villa Park when the sides met back in October - courtesy of Bamford's hat-trick - while Villa have not taken the spoils at Elland Road in the league since December 2000.
Leeds United Premier League form: WLWLLW
Aston Villa Premier League form: LWLWDL
Team News
© Reuters
As well as the already-injured Phillips, Leeds lost fellow midfielder Jamie Shackleton before the game due to abductor problems, while Mateusz Klich was forced off during the win with a back problem.
Pablo Hernandez would therefore love to earn a Premier League start if both players are ruled out of this one, but Pascal Struijk and Dallas deputising in midfield seems the most likely option.
Rodrigo is not expected to come back just yet either, while Helder Costa will hope to force his way into Bielsa's first XI after claiming an assist off the bench against Southampton.
Fantasy football controversy aside, Smith hopes to have Grealish back in the fold for the trip to Elland Road, but at the time of writing the 25-year-old is still considered a major doubt for the game.
Matty Cash and Kortney Hause remain sidelined, and with Ross Barkley flattering to deceive, new boy Morgan Sanson could finally be trusted from the first whistle.
Ollie Watkins has improved his goalscoring record of late, but he has failed to the back of the net in any of his seven meetings with Leeds - his worst record against an English side in the league.
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Cooper, Alioski; Raphinha, Struijk, Dallas, Harrison; Roberts; Bamford
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Elmohamady, Konsa, Mings, Targett; Luiz, McGinn; Traore, Sanson, El Ghazi; Watkins
We say: Leeds United 2-1 Aston Villa
With Bamford and Raphinha firing on all cylinders, Leeds need not lament their injury woes too much given their quality in attack. Villa will hope to take advantage of a ravaged Whites midfield, but another game without Grealish could certainly spell trouble for the below-par visitors, so we are backing Bielsa's men to leapfrog their opponents with a hard-fought triumph on Saturday.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 49.98%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 0-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
