Title-chasing Chelsea Women must defeat Leicester Women at the King Power Stadium on Sunday to keep the pressure on leaders Arsenal, who they still have a game in hand on.
The Blues currently sit two points behind the Gunners meaning that their fate is in their own hands, as if they win every game from now until the end of the season, then Chelsea will have retained their title.
Match preview
© Reuters
Leicester are not yet mathematically safe from relegation, but they are currently eight points clear of bottom-placed Birmingham City, meaning that they have all but secured their top-flight status for another season.
Lydia Bedford's side have had a long break ahead of this outing, having not played since March 12, when they fell to a narrow 3-2 defeat against Everton despite taking an early lead through Jemma Purfield.
The Foxes have always been able to create a lot of chances in their matches this season, but their clinical edge has let them down, missing 14 so-called big chances across the campaign so far, more than seven other teams in the division.
Defensively, Leicester have been much stronger on their own patch than they have been away from home, but Sunday's encounter is likely to test that record as Chelsea have netted 38 times in 16 matches.
© Reuters
Chelsea did not get the opportunity to climb to the top of the table in midweek, as their match against Tottenham Hotspur, which is their game in hand, was postponed due to a coronavirus outbreak in the Spurs squad.
That means that Emma Hayes's side enter this weekend's match on the back of a comfortable 5-0 win in the FA Cup against Birmingham, and a 3-0 win over Everton last weekend in the WSL.
Samantha Kerr, Guro Reiten and Erin Cuthbert were on target at Walton Hall Park, where the game was wrapped up by half time, with Chelsea finding that outing a relatively simple one.
That was also Chelsea's 11th clean sheet of the campaign, and having only conceded seven goals in 16 matches, they have the best defensive record in the division, suggesting that Leicester will find it difficult to penetrate through the visitors on Sunday.
The London outfit came out as 2-0 winners in the reverse fixture in October, but since then Chelsea have managed to put another seven goals past Leicester, that time in the FA Cup last month.
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
There are no new injury or suspension concerns for Leicester, who could name the same side that narrowly missed out against Everton, with a back five expected to set up.
That defensive line will include Purfield, Ashleigh Plumptre, Abbie McManus, Sophie Howard and Esmee De Graaf, while Sam Tierney and Molly Pike sit in front of them as a midfield pair.
Freya Gregory, Shannon O'Brien and Natasha Flint will be responsible for trying to get the Foxes up the pitch, as Jessica Sigsworth remains sidelined due to injury.
Chelsea will set up in their usual 3-4-3 formation, with Fran Kirby still unavailable for selection due to injury, meaning that Bethany England is likely to continue in the front three alongside Kerr and Pernille Harder.
Kerr has found the back of the net in her last three consecutive WSL matches, and she will be keen to continue that form as she goes in hunt for the Golden Boot, currently two goals in front of Arsenal's Vivianne Miedema.
The Blues have been quite dependent on Kerr this season to score their goals, as the next best tally is six from Kirby, but that shows the team have spread the goal scoring as 10 different players have chipped in.
Leicester Women possible starting lineup:
Harris; Purfield, Plumptre, McManus, Howard, De Graaf; Gregory, Pike, Tierney, O'Brien; Flint
Chelsea Women possible starting lineup:
Berger; Carter, Eriksson, Bright; Reiten, Ingle, Ji, Cuthbert; England, Kerr, Harder
We say: Leicester Women 0-3 Chelsea Women
Chelsea are in fine form as they are expected to be and strong favourites for this encounter, which should not cause any slip ups in their title charge.
Leicester are all but safe from relegation and this fixture is one of the hardest of the season, with the hosts not showing much to demonstrate that they will be able to take any points from Chelsea.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Women win with a probability of 86.51%. A draw had a probability of 9.7% and a win for Leicester Women had a probability of 3.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Women win was 0-3 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.25%) and 0-4 (10.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.59%), while for a Leicester Women win it was 1-0 (1.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-9 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea Women would win this match.
