Liechtenstein and North Macedonia will face off at the Rheinpark Stadion in Vaduz for the latest World Cup 2022 European qualifier.
The hosts are group underdogs as ever and have picked up just a solitary point so far, whilst the visitors stand a chance of making their first ever World Cup finals.
Match preview
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Liechtenstein will have been pleased to pick up their first point of the campaign in their previous game, achieving a surprise 1-1 draw away at Armenia.
Noah Frick's 80th-minute equaliser cancelled out Henrikh Mkhitaryan's first-half penalty to earn his side an unlikely point, having faced 28 shots - 10 of which were on target - during the match and managed just 21% of the possession.
The Blues-Reds have only won two of their previous 63 World Cup qualifying matches and lost all 10 games in trying to get to the 2018 tournament, so picking up one point can be seen as a genuine improvement for the minnows, who are ranked 188th in the world, with Gibraltar and San Marino the only European teams below them.
Martin Stocklasa is the first Liechtensteiner to take charge of the national team in over 20 years so will be especially proud of that achievement and perhaps can use it to motivate his side to repeat the feat on Friday.
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North Macedonia will likely prove to be a tough opposition once again, though, having lost just once in their qualification campaign to this point.
That loss came in the opening game of Group J against Romania, where the Lions found themselves on the wrong end of a five-goal thriller - two goals in two minutes from Arijan Ademi and Aleksandar Trajkovski saw them level things up with 10 minutes to go but Ianis Hagi produced the crucial fifth goal in the 85th minute.
The painful defeat seemingly had no effect on morale, though, as the team has produced some stellar results since then, including a shock 2-1 win away at four-time world champions Germany as Eljif Elmas grabbed a dramatic late winner.
Blagoja Milevski's side unfortunately did not carry that form into their first ever major tournament appearance, losing all three games at Euro 2020, and then drew all three of their qualifiers in September.
A game against Liechtenstein presents them with an excellent chance to return to winning ways, though, and they sit just two points behind Armenia in the battle for the second qualification spot.
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Team News
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After Liechtenstein conceded 12 goals in their two friendlies in June with a four-man defence, Stocklasa changed to a back five against Germany and Romania - the side looked considerably more solid in that formation and the manager will likely now stick with it.
Key goal threat Yanik Frick - who is currently without a club - comes into the game one yellow card away from a suspension so will have to be careful to avoid missing Monday's trip to Iceland.
North Macedonia will begin life without Goran Pandev after their former captain decided to retire from international football after Euro 2020.
In the absence of their most-capped, highest-scoring player, the team will have to rely more than ever on Trajkovski to supply the goals, unless younger forwards like Milan Ristovski and Bojan Miovski can take the opportunity to step up.
Both Visar Musliu and Tihomir Kostadinov are banned for the visitors, which may see Gjoko Zajkov and Boban Nikolov come into the side.
Liechtenstein possible starting lineup:
B Buchel; S Wolfinger, Malin, Kaufmann, Hofer, Goppel; N Frick, Frommelt, Hasler; Y Frick, Sele
North Macedonia possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Ristovski, Velkovski, Alioski, Zajkov; Elmas, Nikolov, Spirovski, Churlinov; Ristovski, Trajkovski
We say: Liechtenstein 0-2 North Macedonia
North Macedonia have won all six meetings between these two sides - conceding just twice as they netted 18 times - and beat their upcoming hosts 5-0 in the reverse fixture back in March.
We expect this to be a slightly closer contest, due to Liechtenstein's recent draw and home advantage, but it should still be a comfortable three points for The Lions.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 54.57%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 21.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.8%) and 0-2 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.14%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 1-0 (6.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.
