Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 45.95%. A win for Brest had a probability of 30.2% and a draw had a probability of 23.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.13%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Brest win was 2-1 (7.04%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.