Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint-Etienne win with a probability of 47.39%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 27.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint-Etienne win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-2 (6.9%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.