Playoff-chasing Luton Town play host to Preston North End on Wednesday evening needing to bounce back from suffering two defeats in their last three fixtures.
Preston, currently occupying 13th spot in the standings, travel to Kenilworth Road knowing that victory is realistically required to keep them in the Championship playoff hunt.
Match preview
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At half time against Queens Park Rangers on Sunday, Luton were 45 minutes away from reaching the 60-point mark and being within touching distance of catching third-placed Huddersfield Town.
However, succumbing to a 2-1 defeat against a direct rival has left the Hatters in seventh spot, now needing a victory to remain as a major force in the race for the playoffs.
While Nathan Jones will have few qualms about Luton remaining as underdogs to gain promotion to the Premier League, the Welshman will recognise that a potentially-crucial opportunity was thrown away at the weekend.
Two more matches against Preston and Luton in quick succession is also not ideal on the back of a punishing schedule, but Luton have not suffered successive league defeats since November.
Before losing out to QPR, Luton had gone seven matches at Kenilworth Road without suffering defeat, something Jones will hope is not forgotten ahead of a difficult fixture.
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Although Preston are down in the bottom half of the table, they have proven difficult to beat under Ryan Lowe, losing just three times in 17 matches.
As many as 26 points have been collected from 16 league fixtures, the seventh-best return of the 24 clubs, but eight of those games have ended in draws.
That could be the difference between a playoff place and a respectable top-half finish, although Lowe will be satisfied with the foundations having already been laid ahead of a more sustained push next season.
Overall, the stalemate at Cardiff City on Saturday was their third draw in four outings, but North End are now unbeaten in their last six fixtures away from Deepdale.
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Team News
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With Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu likely sidelined for Luton after an early injury against QPR, either Henri Lansbury or Luke Berry will be recalled in midfield.
Harry Cornick should also return to replace one of Elijah Adebayo or Cameron Jerome, but Robert Snodgrass is expected to remain on the substitutes' bench.
On the back of the stalemate in South Wales, Lowe is unlikely to make major alterations to his Preston starting lineup.
Although Andrew Hughes could drop back into the back three, Patrick Bauer is available again and could make an appearance in the first XI.
Emil Riis Jakobsen and Cameron Archer should retain their spots in attack despite drawing a blank versus the Bluebirds.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Shea; Burke, Lockyer, Naismith; Bree, Lansbury, Campbell, Bell; Clark; Jerome, Cornick
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Van den Berg, Diaby, Bauer; Potts, Browne, Whiteman, Hughes; Johnson; Riis Jakobsen, Archer
We say: Luton Town 2-1 Preston North End
Given the amount of draws which have been recorded since Lowe's arrival at Preston, a low-scoring stalemate cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, Luton need to capitalise on their home fixtures, leading us to predict a more ruthless performance as they bid to stay in close proximity to the top six.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 38.96%. A win for Preston North End had a probability of 32.07% and a draw had a probability of 29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Preston North End win was 0-1 (11.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
