Sheffield Wednesday's next mission on their quest for Championship survival is a trip to an out-of-form Luton Town side on Saturday afternoon.
The Owls are 23rd in the table and three points adrift of safety, while the Hatters are nine points above the relegation zone in 17th – their lowest position of the season so far.
Match preview
© Reuters
Wednesday were beaten 3-0 by promotion-pushing Brentford on Wednesday night - their third successive loss and joint-biggest margin of defeat so far this season.
Ultimately, it was a game that they were never expected to win, and it will be fixtures like this trip to Kenilworth Road, and next week's Yorkshire derby against fellow strugglers Rotherham United, that will define their Championship status.
The Owls have won just three of their 16 league away games this season – and just one of the last 13 – while only opponents Luton have scored fewer goals on the road in the Championship.
Wednesday are the league's overall lowest scorers in 2020-21 with just 21 goals to their name, with Wednesday night being the 13th time they have drawn a blank this season.
A turnaround in form is desperately needed for Neil Thompson's side, and if it does not come against Luton, supporters may seriously start to worry about the club's future.
© Reuters
The Hatters, meanwhile, have won just one of their last seven league games, while only Huddersfield Town have picked up fewer points since the start of 2021.
Nathan Jones's men are one of three Championship teams yet to win a home league game in 2021, and no side has scored fewer goals than Luton (four) since the start of the calendar year; they have also only scored more than once in a game in one of their last 15 fixtures.
However, the Bedfordshire outfit were cruelly denied a win at Kenilworth Road on Tuesday night as they conceded in the 95th-minute to draw 1-1 against Millwall.
January signing Elijah Adebayo had opened the scoring for Luton with his first goal for the club, but Jones was left "really disappointed" by the agonising late equaliser.
Five of the last seven games between Luton and Wednesday have ended 1-0, including this season's reverse fixture in October, which the Hatters won thanks to Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu's second-half goal.
Luton Town Championship form: LDWLLD
Sheffield Wednesday Championship form: WLWLLL
Team News
© Reuters
Jones has hinted that either Matty Pearson or Tom Lockyer could return from their respective recent injuries, revealing "one isn't (fit), we might have a surprise with the other".
Glen Rea, Pelly Ruddock-Mpanzu and top scorer James Collins all started on the bench on Tuesday as Jones looked to rest some of his most-used players, but all three could be put back into the side at the weekend.
January signings Tom Ince and Elijah Adebayo should keep their places after impressive full debuts.
Wednesday will still be without Liam Shaw, who is serving a two-match suspension for his red card against Birmingham City last weekend.
Kieran Westwood missed the defeat to Brentford because of a rib problem and is likely to be absent again, while Thompson has confirmed that Massimo Luongo has had a setback in his return from injury and will be out for another five or six weeks.
Callum Paterson is expected to return to the starting lineup upfront after Thompson gave the Scot a rest in midweek by naming him on the bench.
Luton Town possible starting lineup:
Sluga; Pearson, Cranie, Bradley, Potts; Morrell, Rea, Dewsbury-Hall; Adebayo, Collins, Ince
Sheffield Wednesday possible starting lineup:
Wildsmith; Dunkley, Lees, Urhoghide; Harris, Bannan, Hutchinson, Pelupessy, Reach; Paterson, Rhodes
We say: Luton Town 0-1 Sheffield Wednesday
These are two sides struggling for both form and goals, suggesting this could be a low-scoring and tense affair. Wednesday need the points more, though, and we think that the Owls will just about edge the game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Sheffield Wednesday had a probability of 32.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (7.32%). The likeliest Sheffield Wednesday win was 0-1 (10.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luton Town would win this match.
