Germany travel to the Tose Proeski Arena in Skopje to take on North Macedonia on Monday evening as the World Cup 2022 European qualifiers head towards their conclusion.
The visitors sit comfortably top of Group J with a near-perfect record, whilst the hosts moved up to the all-important second spot after a victory in their last game.
Match preview
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North Macedonia can match their upcoming opponents in having lost just once in their qualification campaign to this point.
That loss came in the opening group game against Romania, where the Lions found themselves on the wrong end of a five-goal thriller, but the painful defeat seemingly had no effect on morale as the team has produced some stellar results since then.
One of those came in the reverse fixture against Germany. The now-retired Goran Pandev put the underdogs in front just before half time and, after an Ilkay Gundogan equaliser from the penalty spot, Elif Elmas struck in the 85th minute to seal a shock 2-1 win.
Last time out, a convincing if somewhat predictable 4-0 victory over Liechtenstein - thanks to goals from Darko Velkovski, Ezgjan Alioski, Boban Nikolov and Darko Churlinov - saw Blagoja Milevski's side move up into the playoff spot in Group J as Romania lost to Germany and Armenia could only draw with Iceland.
A first ever trip to the World Cup is now North Macedonia's to lose and, whilst Germany make for fearsome opposition, Milevski will be able to remind them of their giant-killing exploits in Duisburg back in March.
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Germany have all but secured top spot and automatic qualification - and could well do so on Monday - but will potentially be more focused on exacting revenge on their hosts after that shock defeat.
It was a frustrating game for what was at that time Joachim Low's side, with Leon Goretzka striking the woodwork and Timo Werner fluffing his lines as he scuffed wide from eight yards out with the score at 1-1.
New manager Hansi Flick has enjoyed a perfect start to his time in charge of the German national team, with four victories in his first four games and just one goal conceded.
That goal did come in the most recent game, though, as Die Mannschaft recovered from a goal down against Romania.
Ianis Hagi put his side ahead after just nine minutes, but Serge Gnabry equalised early in the first half and Thomas Muller found a winner late on - with his 40th goal for the national team - to keep up Flick's 100% record heading into the final three qualifiers.
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Team News
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North Macedonia began life without Goran Pandev last time out - their former captain having decided to retire from international football after Euro 2020 - but clearly did not struggle for goals in the absence of their most-capped, highest-scoring player.
The goals were spread around the team, with two coming from midfield and two from defenders, so more regular scorers such as Aleksandar Trajkovski and Milan Ristovski will hope to succeed Pandev as the main supply of goals.
Both Visar Musliu and Tihomir Kostadinov served their suspensions last game but the former has picked up a knock and so is a doubt.
Germany captain Manuel Neuer was ruled out through injury shortly before the game against Romania, with Marc-Andre ter Stegen stepping in, and the Barcelona keeper looks set to remain between the sticks on Monday.
Regular left-back Robin Gosens is also ruled out through injury so Paris Saint-Germain's Thilo Kehrer has been deputising, with Jonas Hofmann impressing on the opposite side of a back four.
Up-and-coming 18-year-old Florian Wirtz missed out last game - not even featuring from the bench - so will likely get some minutes against North Macedonia and may even start.
North Macedonia possible starting lineup:
Dimitrievski; Ristovski, Velkovski, Ristevski, Alioski; Elmas, Kostadinov, Spirovski, Churlinov; Ristovski, Trajkovski
Germany possible starting lineup:
Ter Stegen; Hofmann, Sule, Rudiger, Kehrer; Kimmich, Goretzka; Sane, Muller, Gnabry; Havertz
We say: North Macedonia 1-2 Germany
North Macedonia now technically have a 100% success record in this fixture, the pair having only met the once, but we expect that to end with a narrow Germany victory.
The hosts have more at stake but Flick and his side will surely have too much class for them on this occasion.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 58.65%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 18.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11%) and 1-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.92%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 1-0 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.
