Separated by one point and one place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga standings, Maritimo and Vitoria de Guimaraes square off at the Estadio do Maritimo on Sunday.
O Maior das Ilhas will head into the game seeking to get one over the visitors having failed to win any of the last seven meetings between the sides since 2018.
Match preview
© Reuters
Maritimo returned to winning ways in the Primeira Liga last Sunday when they saw off a resilient Moreirense side 1-0 at the Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
Brazilian defender Matheus Costa came up trumps for the visitors as he broke the deadlock in the 30th minute but it was enough to condemn Moreirense to a third defeat in four games.
Prior to that, Vasco Seabra's men fell to a 1-0 home defeat at the hands of Famalicao on February 20 before returning home to hold reigning champions Sporting Lisbon to a 1-1 draw six days later.
With 32 points from 25 games, Maritimo are currently seventh in the Primeira Liga standings, one point and one place adrift of Sunday's visitors.
While O Maior das Ilhas will be looking to leapfrog the visitors in the table, they have struggled for results on home turf in recent weeks, losing one and claiming three draws in their last four games while scoring two goals in that time.
© Reuters
Vitoria de Guimaraes, on the other hand, put on a fine show of fighting spirit as they came from behind to salvage a 2-1 win over Famalicao at the Dom Afonso Henriques last time out.
After going behind to Pepe's sixth-minute opener, Oscar Estupinan levelled matters on the stroke of half time before Brazilian forward Rochinha scored in the 47th minute to complete the turnaround.
Prior to that, Pepa's men were on a run of three consecutive defeats, losing against Belenenses, Arouca and Benfica respectively, while scoring just one goal and shipping seven in that time.
While Vitoria de Guimaraes will look to keep the juggernaut rolling and strengthen their position in the top half of the table, they have struggled to get going away from home, where they have picked up just four points from their last 27 available.
However, heading into Sunday's game unbeaten in each of the last seven meetings with Maritimo since 2018, Os Vimaranenses will feel confident of coming away with the desired result and extending their dominance in this fixture.
- L
- D
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
On the back of his side's resilient defensive display at Moreirense last time out, Seabra could name an unchanged back line on Sunday, meaning we could see Claudio Winck, Matheus Costa, Zainadine Junior and Vitor Costa shielding Paulo Victor in goal.
Further up the pitch, we should see Andre Vidigal, Bruno Xadas and Rafik Guitane behind 26-year-old forward Ali Alipour at the attacking end of the pitch.
Like O Maior das Ilhas, Vitoria de Guimaraes head into Sunday's game with a clean bill of health, giving Pepa the luxury of a full strength squad at his disposal.
Twenty-six-year-old Rochinha will be looking to deliver the goods once again after registering one goal and an assist in the reverse fixture to inspire Os Vimaranenses to all three points back in October's reverse fixture.
With his strike against the Vila Nova last time out, Estupinan now has 11 goals to his name this season and the Colombian forward is another player to keep an eye out for.
Maritimo possible starting lineup:
Victor; Winck, M Costa, Junior, V Costa; Rossi, Beltrame; Guitane, Xadas, Vidigal; Alipour
Vitoria de Guimaraes possible starting lineup:
Varela; Maga, Fernandes, Mumin, Soares; Almeida, Semedo; Lameiras, Silva, Rochinha; Estupinan
We say: Maritimo 1-1 Vitoria de Guimaraes
With just one spot and one point between Maritimo and Vitoria de Guimaraes in the table, we expect a thrilling contest on Sunday with both sides taking the game to each other in search of all three points. However, we predict the spoils will be shared in this one with both sides settling for a point apiece.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 38.08%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (6.91%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 (10.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
