Marseille will be hoping to make their Champions League venture count for something when they play host to Greek giants Olympiacos at the Orange Velodrome on Tuesday evening.
Les Olympiens are winless and goalless in the group stage so far, while Olympiacos are only three points better off than their midweek opponents and are all but guaranteed to finish outside the top two.
Match preview
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Marseille, and Andre Villas-Boas in particular, will be desperate to eradicate this season's Champions League campaign from their memories as quick as humanely possible.
Their already-thin hopes of qualifying for the knockout stages were dashed by Porto last week, who cruised to a 2-0 victory over their Group C opponents at the Orange Velodrome, with Zaidu Sanusi and Sergio Oliveira bagging one goal each as both sides finished the game with 10 men.
As if losing all of their matches so far was not bad enough, Marseille also hold the unfortunate record of being the only team yet to find the back of the net in the group stage, although a certain striker will certainly be out to make sure that changes in midweek.
Indeed, Dario Benedetto had endured a torrid start to the new season with 12 games gone and no goals to show for it, but the Argentine finally opened his account for the season in Saturday's victory over Nantes, with Benedetto converting from 12 yards after Dimitri Payet and Florian Thauvin had already netted in the first half in that 3-1 win.
A victory over Olympiacos by two goals or more would see Villas-Boas's men leapfrog the Greek giants into the Europa League spot ahead of the final round of group matches, but while Marseille have performed relatively well in the league, their continental form suggests that Olympiacos can afford to feel confident about their chances of a second triumph against the winless and goalless Olympiens.
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Olympiacos have hardly fared much better in Europe's elite tournament either, but the Greek powerhouses were never expected to pip Porto or Manchester City to one of the top two spots in Group C.
The only victory that Pedro Martins's men have picked up in the 2020-21 Champions League so far remains their narrow 1-0 triumph over Marseille in Piraeus last month, with Ahmed Hassan scoring an injury-time winner in matchweek one after being set up by former Olympien Mathieu Valbuena.
While Marseille's troubles in front of goal are well-documented, Hassan's winner against Villas-Boas's side is the only strike that Olympiacos have notched up in the tournament this season, with Martins witnessing his side lose to City twice and Porto once without finding the back of the net.
In fairness, Olympiacos did not make life easy for City when Pep Guardiola's men made the long journey to the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium last week, but the Greek champions ultimately came away empty-handed as Phil Foden's 36th-minute winner propelled City to victory last Wednesday.
However, Olympiacos rectified their midweek mistakes on Saturday as they overcame Aris Thessaloniki 2-1 in the league, with Andreas Bouchalakis netting a brace for Martins's men, who have won their last five on the trot in the Greek Super League.
Marseille Champions League form: LLLL
Marseille form (all competitions): WLLWLW
Olympiacos Champions League form: WLLL
Olympiacos form (all competitions): WLWWLW
Team News
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Marseille defender Leonardo Balerdi was given his marching orders against Porto and will play no part in this one, which all but guarantees that Alvaro Gonzalez and Duje Caleta-Car will form a centre-back partnership once again.
Valere Germain started against Porto but will surely make way for Benedetto here, who should hopefully have a new-found sense of confidence after scoring his first goal of the season.
Nemanja Radonjic is the hosts' only confirmed absentee with a muscular problem, but Morgan Sanson was left out of the squad to face Nantes with a fever and his involvement here is uncertain.
As for Olympiacos, Valbuena will not be able to make a return to the Marseille turf, with the veteran Frenchman confirming that he will be sidelined for the next few weeks through injury.
Last month's match-winner Hassan is still quarantining after testing positive for coronavirus, but Youssef El-Arabi has recovered and is ready to lead the line at the Orange Velodrome.
Wolverhampton Wanderers loanee Ruben Vinagre is struggling with a knock and will probably be sidelined for this fixture as well.
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Sakai, Gonzalez, Caleta-Car, Amavi; Gueye, Rongier, Cuisance; Thauvin, Benedetto, Payet
Olympiacos possible starting lineup:
Sa; Rafinha, Ba, Semedo, Holebas; Pepe, M'Vila, Bouchalakis; Fortounis, El-Arabi, Masouras
We say: Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos
Both Marseille and Olympiacos will be fully aware that this match represents their best chance to register a victory in Europe before they bid their goodbyes to the Champions League for at least another year. Neither team are looking confident in front of goal, but we think that Marseille will finally break their scoring duck and play out a draw with Greek giants on Tuesday evening.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.34%) and 0-2 (5.87%). The likeliest Marseille win was 2-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.
