French high-flyers Marseille will welcome Greek outfit PAOK to the Stade Velodrome on Thursday for the first leg of their Europa Conference League quarter-final tie.
The hosts are heavily fancied to go deep into the competition, having seen off Basel in the last round, while their visitors overcame Gent in the round of 16.
Match preview
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After narrowly missing out on a place in the Europa League knockout stage, Marseille came into the Europa Conference League with high expectations, and they began with a dominant 6-1 victory against Qarabag over two legs in the playoff tie.
Swiss outfit Basel then awaited, and an Arkadiusz Milik brace gave Les Olympiens a 2-1 lead going into the second leg, before they secured their place in the quarter-finals with an away win by the same scoreline.
Jorge Sampaoli's side now head into the final eight in a strong run of form, having won their last five outings in all competitions, most recently beating Saint-Etienne 4-2 away from home at the weekend as Dimitri Payet, Bamba Dieng and Amine Harit got on the scoresheet alongside a Timothee Kolodziejczak own goal.
That saw Les Olympiens strengthen their position in second spot in the French top flight, and, with a good chance of earning Champions League qualification for next season, they will look to add to what has been an impressive campaign by extending their run in Europe's tertiary competition.
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In their bid to take a lead on home turf, Sampaoli's side take on a PAOK team who arrive in France as underdogs looking to cause an upset.
Having finished second in their Conference League group, the Greek outfit also had to go through a playoff tie to reach the final 16, and they eventually prevailed in a penalty shootout against FC Midtjylland after Andrija Zivkovic and Vierinha had drawn them level in the tie with a 2-1 second-leg home win.
They then met Gent and booked a place in the quarter-finals with a 3-1 aggregate victory, firstly beating the Belgian side 1-0 on home turf thanks to Jasmin Kurtic's goal, before Jose Angel Crespo and Douglas Augusto got on the scoresheet as they triumphed 2-1 away.
Now on the back of a disappointing defeat to Panathinaikos to fall further behind in the race for the Greek Super League title, Razvan Lucescu's men will look to gain a surprise advantage on Thursday before welcoming Marseille to Eastern Europe for the second leg next week.
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Team News
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Marseille have continuously fielded a strong side throughout their Europa Conference League run, and Sampaoli should again deploy the majority of his stars.
Arkadiusz Milik will likely lead the line, having netted four goals in three appearances in Europe's third competition, while talismanic midfielder Dimitri Payet could also be deployed for additional attacking threat.
Defender Luan Peres will miss out due to a suspension, while Arsenal loanee William Saliba has impressed at the heart of the back four throughout the season.
Fellow Arsenal prospect Matteo Guendouzi is expected to reform a partnership with Pape Gueye at the base of midfield.
PAOK will remain without centre-back Giannis Michailidis due to an injury, and Lucescu may opt to deploy a largely unchanged starting XI from the one that defeated Gent away from home as a result.
Former Arsenal striker Chuba Akpom will battle with Andrija Zivkovic to lead the attack, while Jasmin Kurtic is another key man going forward, having netted 15 goals in 22 league games from midfield this season.
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Lirola, Caleta-Car, Saliba, Kolasinac; Gueye, Guendouzi; Under, Gerson, Payet; Milik
PAOK possible starting lineup:
Paschalakis; Lyratzis, Varela, Crespo, Vierinha; Tsigarras, Kurtic; Murg, Augusto, Biseswar; Zivkovic
We say: Marseille 3-1 PAOK
The French outfit will fancy their chances of taking a lead in the tie on Thursday, and we do not see them slipping up on home turf.
Sampaoli has plenty of talent at his disposal, and with the squad on a high given their run of impressive form, we see them outclassing PAOK at the Stade Velodrome.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for PAOK had a probability of 31.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.48%). The likeliest PAOK win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
