Marseille will welcome Azerbaijani side Qarabag FK to southern France on Thursday for the first leg of their Europa Conference League knockout playoff tie.
The hosts find themselves batting for a round-of-16 place after failing to qualify in the Europa League, while their visitors earned a spot at this stage with a second-placed finish in their Conference League group.
Match preview
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In their first Europa League appearance in three years, Marseille quickly saw their qualification hopes dwindle this term, as consecutive draws with Lokomotiv Moscow, Galatasaray and Lazio on two occasions were followed by a 4-2 defeat in the reverse fixture with Galatasaray.
While their 1-0 win over Lokomotiv Moscow in the final round of fixtures was not enough to book a knockout spot in Europe's secondary competition, it did comfortably seal a third-placed finish in the group, allowing them a final shot at continental football this term in the form of the Conference League.
They head into this new chapter on the back of an eye-catching first half to the domestic campaign, with Jorge Sampaoli's side sat second in Ligue 1 after 24 games with 46 points, just 14 fewer than they managed in the entirety of last season.
That includes back-to-back league wins heading into Thursday's first leg, as a 5-2 thrashing of Angers was following by a hard-fought 2-1 win over Metz last time out, with Arkadiusz Milik netting the decisive goal.
Now with the pressure on their shoulders and a home leg to begin the tie, Les Olympiens will look to set the tone with a victory on Thursday.
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They welcome a Qarabag side who find themselves in the playoffs thanks to their second-placed finish in the group stage, having started with a draw against group favourites Basel and consecutive victories over Omonia Nicosia and Kairat on two occasions.
Following a draw with Omonia and a 3-0 thrashing at the hands of Basel in the final game, Gurban Gurbanov's side fell short in the race for top spot with the latter, forcing them to go through a playoff round to attempt to earn a place in the final 16.
In relatively unsurprising fashion, the Horsemen are dominating on the domestic front this season, currently topping the Azerbaijani Premier League with 36 points from their 15 games, having netted 32 goals and only conceded nine.
Most recently, Gurbanov's men booked their place in the domestic cup semi-final with a 6-0 second-leg drubbing of FC Inter Baku thanks to braces from Ibrahima Wadji and Ramil Sheydayev and goals from Patrick Andrade and Musa Gurbanli.
They now head into a particularly tough away game looking to bring a positive result back to Eastern Europe ahead of next week's second leg.
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Team News
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Marseille should come in with a relatively clean bill of health, and Sampaoli is expected to deploy a full-strength side to give themselves the best chance of a strong start, with key men like Dimitri Payet, Arkadiusz Milik and Matteo Guendouzi all set to start.
New signing Cedric Bakambu, who arrived in January from Beijing Guoan, has already netted two goals in three Ligue 1 appearances, and the Congolese star will look to add to his tally on Thursday.
Further back, William Saliba, who joined on loan from Arsenal in the summer, has impressed at the heart of the defensive line alongside Duje Caleta-Car or Leonardo Balerdi throughout the season.
Qarabag have been dealing with several injuries recently, and Jaime Romero, Badavi Huseynov and first-choice goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev are all expected to again miss out on Thursday.
Ramil Sheydayev netted two goals in the Europa Conference League group stage, despite all of his appearances being off the bench, and he will hope to be rewarded with a starting spot this time around.
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez; Lirola, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Gueye; Guendouzi, Kamara, Gerson; Bakambu, Milik, Payet
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Gugeshashvili; Vesovic, Mammadov, Medina, Bayramov; Almeida, Ibrahimly; Kady, Ozobic, Zoudir; Sheydayev
We say: Marseille 2-0 Qarabag FK
We see Marseille as a far stronger side than their Azerbaijani visitors, and, with home advantage and given their recent form, we do not expect them to face many problems in their bid to take a lead into the second leg.
Should, at least, a combination of them be deployed, the likes of Payet, Milik and Bakambu boast the ability to put the relative European minnows to the sword in France.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 15.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.12%) and 2-1 (8.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Qarabag FK win it was 0-1 (6.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
