A key game takes place at the top of the Australian A-League table on Thursday, as league leaders Melbourne City play host to third-placed Adelaide United.
The hosts have raced to a nine-point lead at the top of the table with three consecutive victories in league action, while the visitors will look to cut that gap to six points and move past Sydney FC up to second spot with a victory.
Match preview
Melbourne City picked up a narrow victory last time out to stretch their lead at the top of the league, as they hosted Brisbane Roar.
City led 2-0 inside the first 20 minutes through Conor Metcalfe and Scott Jamieson, but the visitors levelled the game through Joseph Champness and a Macaulay Gillesphey equaliser late in the first half before Scott Galloway restored the hosts' lead with a goal in the 73rd minute to seal all three points.
That stretched their winning run to three games in the Australian top flight, having previously recorded 3-1 victories over Newcastle Jets and Perth Glory.
Meanwhile, Patrick Kisnorbo's side have now gone seven games without a defeat in the A-League, picking up 17 points from those matches.
As a result, they find themselves with a comfortable nine-point lead over Sydney FC and Adelaide United at the top of the table, largely down to their strong attacking record, with no other side in the top flight scoring as many as the 48 goals that Kisnorbo's men have netted in 20 league outings.
They will now look to stretch their lead to 12 points with a fourth straight win on Thursday.
Meanwhile, their opponents will be keen to stop that happening, and will instead look to cut the gap to a more manageable six points, while moving back up to second place in the process.
Adelaide United come into this game in a fairly poor run of from, having picked up just three points from their last four A-League outings.
Their last two matches have finished as goalless draws, most recently being held by Wellington Phoenix on home turf.
Before that, Carl Veart's side were unable to break the deadlock at home to eighth-placed Western United, despite the visitors playing with 10 men for an hour after Victor Sanchez was sent off.
As a result of their dip in form, Adelaide have quickly fallen behind the league leaders, although inconsistency from fellow top sides has kept them in the top three, with the chance to go three points clear of Sydney FC and six points behind Melbourne if they can pull a crucial victory off on Thursday.
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- D
- D
Team News
Melbourne City's attack will be led by Jamie Maclaren, who tops the league's scoring charts with 22 goals from 20 appearances alongside five assists.
He will be supported by the wide threat of English winger Craig Noone, who has registered five goals and seven assists in 20 league games this campaign.
Their only absentee should be right-back Nathaniel Atkinson, who has missed the last six games with a hamstring issue.
Scott Galloway has stepped into the back four in Atkinson's absence, and he found the net last time out.
Adelaide United come into this game without right-back Ryan Strain, who will serve a one-game suspension after he was shown a red card in the recent draw with Wellington Phoenix.
They will also remain without several important players through injury, as Javi Lopez, Michael Jakobsen and Nathan Konstandopoulos all continue lengthy spells on the sidelines.
However, they will welcome winger Mohamed Toure back to the squad after he served a suspension last time out.
In the absence of key defender Jakobsen, Jordan Elsey and George Timotheou have partnered up at the heart of the back four, keeping two consecutive clean sheets coming into Thursday's game.
Melbourne City possible starting lineup:
Glover; Galloway, Reis, Good, Jamieson; Metcalfe, O'Neill; Tilio, Berenguer, Noone; Maclaren
Adelaide United possible starting lineup:
Gauci; Marrone, Timotheou, Elsey, Cavallo; D'Arrigo, Juande, Mauk; Halloran, Juric, Goodwin
We say: Melbourne City 2-0 Adelaide United
This promises to be an intriguing encounter, as the A-League's best attacking side comes up against a defence that has looked particularly solid in recent weeks, and we give the edge to the free-scoring hosts.
City should have enough quality with the likes of Noone and Maclaren to stop the visitors recording a third straight clean sheet, while Adelaide's front line has looked particularly toothless recently, which does not bode well as they come up against another of the league's stronger back lines.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 64.89%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Adelaide United had a probability of 17.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.68%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.24%), while for an Adelaide United win it was 1-2 (4.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
