Melbourne City and Newcastle Jets square off at AAMI Park on Thursday as top meets bottom in the A-League.
While the home side hold a one-point advantage at the top of the standings, the visitors have recently dropped into last spot as a result of 10 matches without a win.
Match preview
With every team in the A-League struggling for any kind of consistency, those associated with Melbourne City will be happy to see the club sitting in first place.
However, at a time when just seven points covers the top eight teams, Patrick Kisnorbo is aware that his side must improve on a run of two victories in five fixtures.
When taking into account that draws have been recorded away at Sydney FC and Macarthur, City do not necessarily deserve any criticism for failing to build a significant lead.
Nevertheless, their latest share of the spoils at Macarthur came having held a lead until the closing 15 minutes, leaving Kisnorbo needing to lift his players ahead of this game.
Jamie Maclaren remains the standout player in the division this season, but the 27-year-old failed to improve on a sensational return of seven goals in three games during his most recent outing.
Newcastle Jets will undoubtedly fear a response from Maclaren at a time when they have failed to keep a clean sheet since February 21.
Although the Jets remain within touching distance of moving off the bottom of the table, they were comfortably beaten away at Western United on Monday.
Craig Deans had previously witnessed his team come from behind to claim draws against Perth Glory and Macarthur, giving him encouragement for the rest of the campaign.
However, with nearest rivals Melbourne Victory seemingly on an upward trajectory, the Jets can ill-afford many more defeats if they want to avoid ending the season well adrift of the teams above them.
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- D
- D
- L
Team News
While Kisnorbo will give consideration to resting a number of players, he will also want to avoid any slip-ups.
With that in mind, the City boss may stick with the same starting lineup from the game at Macarthur.
Conor Metcalfe and Florin Berenguer are both one yellow card away from a suspension.
Jets will be without top goalscorer Roy O'Donovan after he collected his fifth caution of the campaign against Western United.
Kosta Petratos could be given an opportunity in his place, while Nigel Boogaard, John Koutroumbis and Jason Hoffman will be considered for recalls.
Melbourne City possible starting lineup:
Glover; Galloway, Stokes, Good, Jamieson; Luna, O'Neill, Metcalfe; Nabbout, Maclaren, Noone
Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Italiano; Millar, Koutroumbis, Topor-Stanley, O'Toole; Ugarkovic, Thurgate; Yuel, Prso, Petratos; Stamatelopoulos
We say: Melbourne City 3-0 Newcastle Jets
Having improved in recent games, the Jets may relish the chance to play without pressure against the best team in the division.
However, we still expect the home side to make light work of their opponents, cruising to victory with a clean sheet.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 65.95%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 16.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 3-1 (7.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.73%), while for a Newcastle Jets win it was 1-2 (4.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
