High-flying Nice will be looking to secure their fifth successive Ligue 1 victory when they face a resurgent Metz outfit at the Stade Saint-Symphorien on Sunday lunchtime.
The hosts have claimed the joint-fewest number of points on home soil this season (seven), while no other team have won as many away matches in the French top flight than Nice this term (eight).
Match preview
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For the first time since mid-September, Metz are sitting outside the relegation zone after their crucial 1-0 win away at Reims last weekend.
After a goalless first half, the deadlock was broken when Ibrahima Niane headed in from a tight angle just after the hour mark, which proved to be the winning goal for the visitors.
Frederic Antonetti's men seem to have found their form at the right time after accumulating seven points from their last 12 available and moving two points above the relegation playoff position.
Metz have now won four Ligue 1 matches this season, one of which was in the reverse fixture against Sunday's opponents Nice, who they beat 1-0 in November last year thanks to Fabien Centonze's first-half strike.
Antonetti will unfortunately not be in the dugout this weekend for his 600th Ligue 1 game as a manager, as he is to serve a one-game touchline ban, but the 60-year-old will be hoping that his side can at least mark the occasion with another three points, as Les Grenats aim to steer themselves further away from danger.
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Metz, however, will come up against Ligue 1's in-form side Nice, who have won each of their last four matches, scoring at least twice on each occasion.
Impressive victories against fellow European challengers Rennes and Lens at the end of 2021 were followed by a 3-0 win with 10 men away at Brest to open their account in 2022, and then last Friday's 2-1 success at home against Nantes.
A 30-yard free kick from Nantes's Andrei Girotto on the stroke of half time cancelled out Kasper Dolberg's 21st-minute penalty, but the hosts managed to regain the lead midway through the second half thanks to a calm finish inside the area from Khephren Thuram.
Nice are currently sitting 13 points and 11 places better off than at this stage last season, though Christophe Galtier's side remain 11 points behind league leaders Paris Saint-Germain.
Les Aiglons head into Sunday's fixture having won more away games than any other Ligue 1 team this season, coming out on top seven times in 10 matches on the road, including four wins in their last five.
Victory for Nice at the Stade Saint-Symphorien would see them equal their highest number of away wins in a single top-flight campaign, having previously won eight in 1972-73, 2016-17 and 2020-21.
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Team News
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Metz currently have seven players on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations – Sofiane Alakouch, Pape Sarr, Boubakar Kouyate, Habib Maiga, Dylan Bronn, Farid Boulaya and Alexandre Oukidja – though the latter two are to return early after AFCON holders Algeria were surprisingly knocked out at the group stage. Both players, however, are unlikely to feature this weekend.
The hosts will also be without Jemerson (thigh), Manuel Cabit (leg), Matthieu Udol (knee) and Kevin N'Doram (broken foot) due to injury, while Centonze and Jean-Armel Kana-Biyik are both doubtful.
As Antonetti is short of options in defence, Sikou Niakate, Amadu Salif Mbengue and 18-year-old Lenny Lacroix – who have started only seven league games combined this season – could all start in the back three.
As for Nice, Justin Kluivert will serve a one-match suspension following an accumulation of yellow cards, but Morgan Schneiderlin is able to return from his one-game ban and will be in contention to start in centre-midfield.
Youcef Atal, another Algerian player, will return from AFCON early but is not expected to feature this weekend, while Gabonese midfielder Mario Lemina remains sidelined with heart complications caused by contracting COVID-19 – the 28-year-old also announced his international retirement this week midway through the tournament.
Left-back Melvin Bard missed last Friday's game after testing positive for COVID-19 and is doubtful this weekend, so Jordan Amavi is expected to continue in the back four, alongside Jordan Lotomba, Jean-Clair Todibo and Dante.
Nice forward Amine Gouiri is also set to start again this weekend; among players born in 2000 or later who currently play in one of Europe's top five leagues, only Erling Braut Haaland (53) and Dusan Vlahovic (42) have been involved in more goals than Gouiri (34) since the start of last season.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Caillard; Lacroix, Niakate, Mbengue; Centonze, Pajot, Traore, Bassi, Delaine; Niane, Nguette
Nice possible starting lineup:
Benitez; Lotomba, Dante, Todibo, Amavi; Boudaoui, Rosario, Thuram, Gouiri; Delort, Dolberg
We say: Metz 1-3 Nice
Both sides head into Sunday's fixture in high spirits, though the visitors will be the strong favourites to come away with all three points.
Metz can take confidence into the game having already beaten Nice this season, but Les Aiglons should have enough quality, particularly in the final third, to secure their fifth league victory in a row.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nice win with a probability of 51.57%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Metz had a probability of 23.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nice win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.79%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.98%), while for a Metz win it was 1-0 (7.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nice would win this match.
