El Tri are in fine form heading into their opening match of this tournament with victories over Panama (3-0) and blanking Nigeria last weekend (4-0), while the Soca Warriors only got here thanks to a dramatic victory, 8-7 on penalties in a play-off with French Guiana.

Match preview

Mexico defender Cesar Jasib Montes Castro celebrates his goal on July 1, 2021 © Reuters

As the highest-ranked team in CONCACAF (11th), Mexico come into this tournament as solid favourites to repeat as Gold Cup Champions.

With plenty of familiar faces returning from their 2019 triumph and some new talent joining the fold as well, this side look even better than they did two years ago.

Anytime Mexico does not win an international competition within their own region, it leaves a bitter taste in their mouth, so you can bet that Gerardo Martino will have his side focused and ready for this competition after losing a heartbreaking CONCACAF Nations League final to the United States last month.

That defeat tainted what was a very impressive year for this squad, who have only lost twice in their eight games in 2021 and have not conceded a goal since their Nations League defeat.

Since this tournament became known as the Gold Cup in 1991, Mexico have never failed to make it out of the group stage, finishing first or second every time.

Grouped with three teams that they have not lost to in over a decade, it seems likely that trend will continue, which might be good news for the replacements on this team, who could see the field if the Mexicans dominate like they are expected to early on.

The Soca Warriors are making their second successive trip to the Gold Cup, but the road to get here this time around was incredibly bumpy, having to outlast French Guiana 8-7 in a nerve-wracking penalty shootout on Tuesday after the match ended 1-1.

After failing to advance to the Second Round of World Cup qualifying earlier this year, the focus for interim manager Angus Eve will be to restore some pride in this Caribbean nation.

Their performance at this competition in 2019 is one that they would like to forget, losing their opening match to Panama 2-0 before getting trounced 6-0 by the United States and wrapping up their campaign with a 1-1 draw against Guyana.

Collecting three points has not come easily for this team at this competition, having not won a group stage match since 2015, when they famously topped their group above Mexico, en route to the quarter-finals.

The fact that this team have multiple players without a club shows you how much the talent pool of players in the country has dried up since the days of former Man United striker Dwight Yorke.

However, tournaments like this are an opportunity for players to make a name for themselves and earn contracts with clubs around the world, so that should be added motivation for this side moving forward.

Mexico form (all competitions):

Trinidad and Tobago form (all competitions):

Team News

Rogelio Funes Mori made quite the impact for Mexico in his first appearance for this side, scoring just four minutes into their friendly with Nigeria last week, putting to bed any doubts that this team will struggle upfront without the man voted the best player at this competition in 2019, Raul Jimenez.

Jimenez is still recovering from his concussion suffered in the Premier League this past season with his club side Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Centre-back Carlos Salcedo is the defensive lynchpin for this team, capturing the Scotiabank CONCACAF Champions League title in 2020 with Tigres.

There are various attacking threats for this side that you will need to watch out for, including Hirving Lozano and Hector Herrera, while winger Jesus Corona is dynamic and versatile and Alan Pulido is having an exceptional season with Sporting Kansas City with six goals so far.

Goalkeeper Nicklas Frenderup is the reason Trinidad and Tobago are still here, as he saved the final penalty kick from French Guiana on Tuesday, while his teammate Curtis Gonzales slotted home the decisive kick.

Columbus Crew striker Kevin Molino will be counted on to score some goals for this team, and if he can find the back of the net on Saturday, he would move into a tie with former striker Cornell Glenn for fifth all-time with 24.

Midfielder Khaleem Hyland needs just two more appearances to tie Carlos Edwards for fifth all-time, as the 32-year-old has earned 94 caps for his country.

Mexico possible starting lineup:
Talavera; L. Rodriguez, Sepulveda, Salcedo, O. Rodriguez; Herrera, Alvarez, Pineda; Corona, Funes Mori, Lozano

Trinidad and Tobago possible starting lineup:
Frenderup; Russell, Garcia, Hodge, Gonzales; Muckette, Moore, Hyland, Joseph; Molino, Telfer

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We say: Mexico 3-1 Trinidad and Tobago

Mexico have not lost a match in the group stage at the Gold Cup since 2013 and are coming into this competition very determined and with a good mix of youth and experience.

The Soca Warriors barely squeaked into this competition, they are short on talent in the middle of the pitch, so their lone attacking threat, Kevin Molino, could be hard-pressed to get good service upfront.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Joel Lefevre

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 66.68%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Trinidad and Tobago had a probability of 10.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.14%) and 3-0 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.51%), while for a Trinidad and Tobago win it was 0-1 (5.61%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.